{ "Introduction": { "Background": { "text": "
The Tajik people came under Russian imperial rule in the 1860s and 1870s, but Russia's hold on Central Asia weakened following the Revolution of 1917. At that time, bands of indigenous guerrillas (known as \"basmachi\") fiercely contested Bolshevik control of the area, which was not fully reestablished until 1925. Tajikistan was first created as an autonomous republic within Uzbekistan in 1924, but in 1929 the USSR designated Tajikistan a separate republic and transferred to it much of present-day Sughd province. Ethnic Uzbeks form a substantial minority in Tajikistan, and ethnic Tajiks an even larger minority in Uzbekistan. Tajikistan became independent in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union, and experienced a civil war between political, regional, and religious factions from 1992 to 1997.
Though the country holds general elections for both the presidency (once every seven years) and legislature (once every five years), observers note an electoral system rife with irregularities and abuse, with results that are neither free nor fair. President Emomali RAHMON, who came to power in 1992 during the civil war and was first elected president in 1994, used an attack planned by a disaffected deputy defense minister in 2015 to ban the last major opposition political party in Tajikistan. In December 2015, RAHMON further strengthened his position by having himself declared \"Founder of Peace and National Unity, Leader of the Nation,\" with limitless terms and lifelong immunity through constitutional amendments ratified in a referendum. The referendum also lowered the minimum age required to run for president from 35 to 30, which made RAHMON's first-born son Rustam EMOMALI, the mayor of the capital city of Dushanbe, eligible to run for president in 2020. In April 2020, RAHMON orchestrated EMOMALI's selection as Chairman of the Majlisi Milli (Tajikistan's senate), positioning EMOMALI as next in line of succession for the presidency. RAHMON opted to run in the presidential election in October 2020 and received 91% of the vote.
The country remains the poorest in the former Soviet sphere. Tajikistan became a member of the WTO in March 2013. However, its economy continues to face major challenges, including dependence on remittances from Tajikistani migrant laborers working in Russia and Kazakhstan, pervasive corruption, and the opiate trade and other destabilizing violence emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. Tajikistan has endured several domestic security incidents since 2010, including armed conflict between government forces and local strongmen in the Rasht Valley and between government forces and criminal groups in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast. Tajikistan suffered its first ISIS-claimed attack in 2018, when assailants attacked a group of Western bicyclists with vehicles and knives, killing four.
Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, tungsten, and coal. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant - currently operating well below its capacity. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Today, Tajikistan is the poorest among the former Soviet republics. Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.
Since the end of the civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations in the economic sphere, but its poor business climate remains a hindrance to attracting foreign investment. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30%-50% of GDP.
Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad - roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through remittances that in 2017 were equivalent to nearly 35% of GDP. Tajikistan’s large remittances from migrant workers in Russia exposes it to monetary shocks. Tajikistan often delays devaluation of its currency for fear of inflationary pressures on food and other consumables. Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations have hampered economic growth. The dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by almost 65% in 2015, and the government spent almost $500 million in 2016 to bail out the country’s still troubled banking sector.
Tajikistan’s growing public debt – currently about 50% of GDP – could result in financial difficulties. Remittances from Russia increased in 2017, however, bolstering the economy somewhat. China owns about 50% of Tajikistan’s outstanding debt. Tajikistan has borrowed heavily to finance investment in the country’s vast hydropower potential. In 2016, Tajikistan contracted with the Italian firm Salini Impregilo to build the Roghun dam over a 13-year period for $3.9 billion. A 2017 Eurobond has largely funded Roghun’s first phase, after which sales from Roghun’s output are expected to fund the rest of its construction. The government has not ruled out issuing another Eurobond to generate auxiliary funding for its second phase.
" }, "Real GDP (purchasing power parity)": { "Real GDP (purchasing power parity) 2020": { "text": "$34.88 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est.)" }, "Real GDP (purchasing power parity) 2019": { "text": "$33.38 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est.)" }, "Real GDP (purchasing power parity) 2018": { "text": "$31.08 billion note: data are in 2017 dollars (2018 est.)" }, "note": "note: data are in 2017 dollars" }, "Real GDP growth rate": { "Real GDP growth rate 2017": { "text": "7.1% (2017 est.)" }, "Real GDP growth rate 2016": { "text": "6.9% (2016 est.)" }, "Real GDP growth rate 2015": { "text": "6% (2015 est.)" } }, "Real GDP per capita": { "Real GDP per capita 2020": { "text": "$3,700 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2020 est.)" }, "Real GDP per capita 2019": { "text": "$3,600 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2019 est.)" }, "Real GDP per capita 2018": { "text": "$3,400 note: data are in 2017 dollars (2018 est.)" }, "note": "note: data are in 2017 dollars" }, "GDP (official exchange rate)": { "text": "$2.522 billion (2019 est.)" }, "Inflation rate (consumer prices)": { "Inflation rate (consumer prices) 2019": { "text": "7.7% (2019 est.)" }, "Inflation rate (consumer prices) 2018": { "text": "3.9% (2018 est.)" }, "Inflation rate (consumer prices) 2017": { "text": "7.3% (2017 est.)" } }, "Credit ratings": { "Moody's rating": { "text": "B3 (2017)" }, "Standard & Poors rating": { "text": "B- (2017)" } }, "GDP - composition, by sector of origin": { "agriculture": { "text": "28.6% (2017 est.)" }, "industry": { "text": "25.5% (2017 est.)" }, "services": { "text": "45.9% (2017 est.)" } }, "GDP - composition, by end use": { "household consumption": { "text": "98.4% (2017 est.)" }, "government consumption": { "text": "13.3% (2017 est.)" }, "investment in fixed capital": { "text": "11.7% (2017 est.)" }, "investment in inventories": { "text": "2.5% (2017 est.)" }, "exports of goods and services": { "text": "10.7% (2017 est.)" }, "imports of goods and services": { "text": "-36.6% (2017 est.)" } }, "Agricultural products": { "text": "milk, potatoes, wheat, watermelons, onions, tomatoes, vegetables, cotton, carrots/turnips, beef" }, "Industries": { "text": "aluminum, cement, coal, gold, silver, antimony, textile, vegetable oil" }, "Industrial production growth rate": { "text": "1% (2017 est.)" }, "Labor force": { "text": "2.295 million (2016 est.)" }, "Labor force - by occupation": { "agriculture": { "text": "43%" }, "industry": { "text": "10.6%" }, "services": { "text": "46.4% (2016 est.)" } }, "Unemployment rate": { "Unemployment rate 2016": { "text": "2.4% (2016 est.)" }, "Unemployment rate 2015": { "text": "2.5% (2015 est.)" }, "note": "note: official rate; actual unemployment is much higher" }, "Population below poverty line": { "text": "26.3% (2019 est.)" }, "Gini Index coefficient - distribution of family income": { "Gini Index coefficient - distribution of family income 2015": { "text": "34 (2015 est.)" }, "Gini Index coefficient - distribution of family income 1998": { "text": "34.7 (1998)" } }, "Household income or consumption by percentage share": { "lowest 10%": { "text": "NA (2009 est.)" }, "highest 10%": { "text": "NA (2009 est.)" } }, "Budget": { "revenues": { "text": "2.269 billion (2017 est.)" }, "expenditures": { "text": "2.374 billion (2017 est.)" } }, "Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)": { "text": "-1.5% (of GDP) (2017 est.)" }, "Public debt": { "Public debt 2017": { "text": "50.4% of GDP (2017 est.)" }, "Public debt 2016": { "text": "42% of GDP (2016 est.)" } }, "Taxes and other revenues": { "text": "31.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)" }, "Fiscal year": { "text": "calendar year" }, "Current account balance": { "Current account balance 2017": { "text": "-$35 million (2017 est.)" }, "Current account balance 2016": { "text": "-$362 million (2016 est.)" } }, "Exports": { "Exports 2020": { "text": "$1.41 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2020 est.)" }, "Exports 2019": { "text": "$1.24 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2019 est.)" }, "Exports 2018": { "text": "$1.12 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2018 est.)" } }, "Exports - partners": { "text": "Turkey 24%, Switzerland 22%, Uzbekistan 16%, Kazakhstan 12%, China 10% (2019)" }, "Exports - commodities": { "text": "gold, aluminum, cotton, zinc, antimony, lead (2019)" }, "Imports": { "Imports 2020": { "text": "$3.13 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2020 est.)" }, "Imports 2019": { "text": "$3.41 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2019 est.)" }, "Imports 2018": { "text": "$3.22 billion note: data are in current year dollars (2018 est.)" } }, "Imports - partners": { "text": "China 40%, Russia 38%, Kazakhstan 19%, Uzbekistan 5% (2019)" }, "Imports - commodities": { "text": "refined petroleum, wheat, natural gas, bauxite, aircraft (2019)" }, "Reserves of foreign exchange and gold": { "Reserves of foreign exchange and gold 31 December 2017": { "text": "$1.292 billion (31 December 2017 est.)" }, "Reserves of foreign exchange and gold 31 December 2016": { "text": "$652.8 million (31 December 2016 est.)" } }, "Debt - external": { "Debt - external 2019": { "text": "$6.47 billion (2019 est.)" }, "Debt - external 2018": { "text": "$5.849 billion (2018 est.)" } }, "Exchange rates": { "currency": { "text": "Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar -" }, "Exchange rates 2017": { "text": "8.764 (2017 est.)" }, "Exchange rates 2016": { "text": "7.8358 (2016 est.)" }, "Exchange rates 2015": { "text": "7.8358 (2015 est.)" }, "Exchange rates 2014": { "text": "6.1631 (2014 est.)" }, "Exchange rates 2013": { "text": "4.9348 (2013 est.)" } } }, "Energy": { "Electricity access": { "electrification - total population": { "text": "100% (2020)" } }, "Electricity - production": { "text": "17.03 billion kWh (2016 est.)" }, "Electricity - consumption": { "text": "12.96 billion kWh (2016 est.)" }, "Electricity - exports": { "text": "1.4 billion kWh NA (2015 est.)" }, "Electricity - imports": { "text": "103 million kWh (2016 est.)" }, "Electricity - installed generating capacity": { "text": "5.508 million kW (2016 est.)" }, "Electricity - from fossil fuels": { "text": "6% of total installed capacity (2016 est.)" }, "Electricity - from nuclear fuels": { "text": "0% of total installed capacity (2017 est.)" }, "Electricity - from hydroelectric plants": { "text": "94% of total installed capacity (2017 est.)" }, "Electricity - from other renewable sources": { "text": "0% of total installed capacity (2017 est.)" }, "Crude oil - production": { "text": "180 bbl/day (2018 est.)" }, "Crude oil - exports": { "text": "0 bbl/day (2015 est.)" }, "Crude oil - imports": { "text": "0 bbl/day (2015 est.)" }, "Crude oil - proved reserves": { "text": "12 million bbl (1 January 2018 est.)" }, "Refined petroleum products - production": { "text": "172 bbl/day (2015 est.)" }, "Refined petroleum products - consumption": { "text": "24,000 bbl/day (2016 est.)" }, "Refined petroleum products - exports": { "text": "0 bbl/day (2015 est.)" }, "Refined petroleum products - imports": { "text": "22,460 bbl/day (2015 est.)" }, "Natural gas - production": { "text": "19.82 million cu m (2017 est.)" }, "Natural gas - consumption": { "text": "19.82 million cu m (2017 est.)" }, "Natural gas - exports": { "text": "0 cu m (2017 est.)" }, "Natural gas - imports": { "text": "0 cu m (2017 est.)" }, "Natural gas - proved reserves": { "text": "5.663 billion cu m (1 January 2018 est.)" } }, "Communications": { "Telephones - fixed lines": { "total subscriptions": { "text": "479,000 (2018)" }, "subscriptions per 100 inhabitants": { "text": "5.39 (2018 est.)" } }, "Telephones - mobile cellular": { "total subscriptions": { "text": "9.904 million (2018)" }, "subscriptions per 100 inhabitants": { "text": "111.5 (2019 est.)" } }, "Telecommunication systems": { "general assessment": { "text": "Tajikistan’s telecom sector continues to struggle due to geographic isolation, lack of electricity, dysfunctional business climate, and impoverished citizenry; despite the launch of 4G/LTE services, one of the lowest fixed-line penetrations in Asia and one of the lowest broadband levels in the world; with help from foreign investment, mobile sector near saturation phase; Russian loans and Chinese investment in infrastructure through Economic Corridor initiatives; a few cities have 4G coverage; LTE-based smart city concept in Dushanbe; government restricts political rights and civil liberties, controlling information through media interruptions; government raised rates on Internet-based calls and Internet services in 2020, making price one of the highest in the world; importer of video displays and broadcasting equipment from China (2020)" }, "domestic": { "text": "fixed line availability has not changed significantly since 1998, while mobile cellular subscribership, aided by competition among multiple operators, has expanded; coverage now extends to all major cities and towns; fixed-line over 5 per 100 and mobile-cellular over 111 per 100 (2019)" }, "international": { "text": "country code - 992; linked by cable and microwave radio relay to other CIS republics and by leased connections to the Moscow international gateway switch; Dushanbe linked by Intelsat to international gateway switch in Ankara (Turkey); 3 satellite earth stations - 2 Intelsat and 1 Orbita" }, "note": "note: the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant impact on production and supply chains globally; since 2020, some aspects of the telecom sector have experienced downturn, particularly in mobile device production; many network operators delayed upgrades to infrastructure; progress towards 5G implementation was postponed or slowed in some countries; consumer spending on telecom services and devices was affected by large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes; the crucial nature of telecom services as a tool for work and school from home became evident, and received some support from governments" }, "Broadcast media": { "text": "state-run TV broadcasters transmit nationally on 9 TV and 10 radio stations, and regionally on 4 stations; 31 independent TV and 20 radio stations broadcast locally and regionally; many households are able to receive Russian and other foreign stations via cable and satellite (2016)" }, "Internet country code": { "text": ".tj" }, "Internet users": { "total": { "text": "3.36 million (2021 est.)" }, "percent of population": { "text": "21.96% (2019 est.)" } }, "Broadband - fixed subscriptions": { "total": { "text": "6,000 (2017 est.)" }, "subscriptions per 100 inhabitants": { "text": "less than 1 (2019 est.)" } } }, "Transportation": { "National air transport system": { "number of registered air carriers": { "text": "2 (2020)" }, "inventory of registered aircraft operated by air carriers": { "text": "6" }, "annual passenger traffic on registered air carriers": { "text": "492,320 (2018)" }, "annual freight traffic on registered air carriers": { "text": "2.34 million mt-km (2018)" } }, "Civil aircraft registration country code prefix": { "text": "EY" }, "Airports": { "total": { "text": "24 (2013)" } }, "Airports - with paved runways": { "total": { "text": "17" }, "over 3,047 m": { "text": "2" }, "2,438 to 3,047 m": { "text": "4" }, "1,524 to 2,437 m": { "text": "5" }, "914 to 1,523 m": { "text": "3" }, "under 914 m": { "text": "3 (2013)" } }, "Airports - with unpaved runways": { "total": { "text": "7" }, "1,524 to 2,437 m": { "text": "1" }, "914 to 1,523 m": { "text": "1" }, "under 914 m": { "text": "5 (2013)" } }, "Pipelines": { "text": "549 km gas, 38 km oil (2013)" }, "Railways": { "total": { "text": "680 km (2014)" }, "broad gauge": { "text": "680 km 1.520-m gauge (2014)" } }, "Roadways": { "total": { "text": "30,000 km (2018)" } }, "Waterways": { "text": "200 km (along Vakhsh River) (2011)" } }, "Military and Security": { "Military and security forces": { "text": "Armed Forces of the Republic of Tajikistan: Land Forces, Mobile Forces, Air and Air Defense Forces; National Guard; Ministry of Internal Affairs: Internal Troops (reserves for Armed Forces in wartime); State Committee on National Security: Border Guard Forces (2021)" }, "Military expenditures": { "Military Expenditures 2020": { "text": "1.2% of GDP (2020 est.)" }, "Military Expenditures 2019": { "text": "2.1% of GDP (2019 est.)" }, "Military Expenditures 2018": { "text": "2.1% of GDP (2018 est.)" }, "Military Expenditures 2017": { "text": "2.2% of GDP (2017 est.)" }, "Military Expenditures 2016": { "text": "2.2% of GDP (2016 est.)" } }, "Military and security service personnel strengths": { "text": "approximately 9,500 active troops (8,000 Land and Mobile Forces; 1,500 Air and Air Defense Forces) (2021)" }, "Military equipment inventories and acquisitions": { "text": "the Tajikistan Armed Forces' inventory is comprised of older Russian and Soviet-era equipment; it has received limited quantities of weapons systems since 2010, most of which was second-hand material from Russia (2021)" }, "Military service age and obligation": { "text": "18-27 years of age for compulsory or voluntary military service for men; 24-month conscript service obligation; in August 2021, the Tajik Government began allowing men to pay a fee in order to avoid conscription (2021)" }, "Military - note": { "text": "Tajikistan has been a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) since 1994 and contributes troops to CSTO's rapid reaction force" } }, "Terrorism": { "Terrorist group(s)": { "text": "Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS)", "note": "note: details about the history, aims, leadership, organization, areas of operation, tactics, targets, weapons, size, and sources of support of the group(s) appear(s) in Appendix-T" } }, "Transnational Issues": { "Disputes - international": { "text": "in 2006, China and Tajikistan pledged to commence demarcation of the revised boundary agreed to in the delimitation of 2002; talks continue with Uzbekistan to delimit border and remove minefields; disputes in Isfara Valley delay delimitation with Kyrgyzstan
" }, "Refugees and internally displaced persons": { "refugees (country of origin)": { "text": "6,775 (Afghanistan) (mid-year 2021)" }, "stateless persons": { "text": "6,141 (mid-year 2021)" } }, "Illicit drugs": { "text": "Tajikistan is a major route for drug trafficking in Central Asia; opiates and cannabis travel from Afghanistan through Tajikistan to markets in Russia, Belarus, and Western and Central Europe" } } }