GPy/GPy/testing/test_ep_likelihood.py
2023-10-16 08:30:53 +02:00

196 lines
7 KiB
Python

import pytest
import numpy as np
import GPy
fixed_seed = 10
def rmse(Y, Ystar):
return np.sqrt(np.mean((Y - Ystar) ** 2))
# this file will contain some high level tests, this is not unit testing, but will give us a higher level estimate
# if things are going well under the hood.
class TestObservationModels:
def setup(self):
np.random.seed(fixed_seed)
self.N = 100
self.D = 2
self.X = np.random.rand(self.N, self.D)
self.real_noise_std = 0.05
noise = np.random.randn(*self.X[:, 0].shape) * self.real_noise_std
self.Y = (np.sin(self.X[:, 0] * 2 * np.pi) + noise)[:, None]
self.num_points = self.X.shape[0]
self.f = np.random.rand(self.N, 1)
self.binary_Y = np.asarray(np.random.rand(self.N) > 0.5, dtype=np.int)[:, None]
# self.binary_Y[self.binary_Y == 0.0] = -1.0
self.positive_Y = np.exp(self.Y.copy())
self.Y_noisy = self.Y.copy()
self.Y_verynoisy = self.Y.copy()
self.Y_noisy[75] += 1.3
self.init_var = 0.15
self.deg_free = 4.0
censored = np.zeros_like(self.Y)
random_inds = np.random.choice(self.N, int(self.N / 2), replace=True)
censored[random_inds] = 1
self.Y_metadata = dict()
self.Y_metadata["censored"] = censored
self.kernel1 = GPy.kern.RBF(self.X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.White(self.X.shape[1])
def tear_down(self):
self.Y = None
self.X = None
self.binary_Y = None
self.positive_Y = None
self.kernel1 = None
def test_epccassification(self):
self.setup()
self.tear_down()
bernoulli = GPy.likelihoods.Bernoulli()
laplace_inf = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.Laplace()
ep_inf_alt = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(ep_mode="alternated")
ep_inf_nested = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(ep_mode="nested")
ep_inf_fractional = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(
ep_mode="nested", eta=0.9
)
m1 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X,
self.binary_Y.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=bernoulli.copy(),
inference_method=laplace_inf,
)
m1.randomize()
m2 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X,
self.binary_Y.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=bernoulli.copy(),
inference_method=ep_inf_alt,
)
m2.randomize()
m3 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X,
self.binary_Y.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=bernoulli.copy(),
inference_method=ep_inf_nested,
)
m3.randomize()
#
m4 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X,
self.binary_Y.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=bernoulli.copy(),
inference_method=ep_inf_fractional,
)
m4.randomize()
optimizer = "bfgs"
# do gradcheck here ...
# self.assertTrue(m1.checkgrad())
# self.assertTrue(m2.checkgrad())
# self.assertTrue(m3.checkgrad())
# self.assertTrue(m4.checkgrad())
m1.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=300)
m2.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=300)
m3.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=300)
m4.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=300)
# taking laplace predictions as the ground truth
probs_mean_lap, probs_var_lap = m1.predict(self.X)
probs_mean_ep_alt, probs_var_ep_alt = m2.predict(self.X)
probs_mean_ep_nested, probs_var_ep_nested = m3.predict(self.X)
# for simple single dimension data , marginal likelihood for laplace and EP approximations should not be so far apart.
# TODO: the below were assertAlmostEqual, not sure if allclose will do the job here
# I replace the old delta with the atol
assert np.allclose(m1.log_likelihood(), m2.log_likelihood(), atol=1.0)
assert np.allclose(m1.log_likelihood(), m3.log_likelihood(), atol=1)
assert np.allclose(m1.log_likelihood(), m4.log_likelihood(), atol=5.0)
GPy.util.classification.conf_matrix(probs_mean_lap, self.binary_Y)
GPy.util.classification.conf_matrix(probs_mean_ep_alt, self.binary_Y)
GPy.util.classification.conf_matrix(probs_mean_ep_nested, self.binary_Y)
@pytest.mark.skip(
"Fails as a consequence of fixing the DSYR function. Needs to be reviewed!"
)
def test_ep_with_studentt(self):
self.setup()
self.tear_down()
studentT = GPy.likelihoods.StudentT(
deg_free=self.deg_free, sigma2=self.init_var
)
laplace_inf = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.Laplace()
ep_inf_alt = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(ep_mode="alternated")
ep_inf_nested = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(ep_mode="nested")
ep_inf_frac = GPy.inference.latent_function_inference.EP(
ep_mode="nested", eta=0.7
)
m1 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X.copy(),
self.Y_noisy.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=studentT.copy(),
inference_method=laplace_inf,
)
# optimize
m1[".*white"].constrain_fixed(1e-5)
m1.randomize()
m2 = GPy.core.GP(
self.X.copy(),
self.Y_noisy.copy(),
kernel=self.kernel1.copy(),
likelihood=studentT.copy(),
inference_method=ep_inf_alt,
)
m2[".*white"].constrain_fixed(1e-5)
# m2.constrain_bounded('.*t_scale2', 0.001, 10)
m2.randomize()
# m3 = GPy.core.GP(self.X, self.Y_noisy.copy(), kernel=self.kernel1, likelihood=studentT.copy(), inference_method=ep_inf_nested)
# m3['.*white'].constrain_fixed(1e-5)
# # m3.constrain_bounded('.*t_scale2', 0.001, 10)
# m3.randomize()
optimizer = "bfgs"
m1.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=400)
m2.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=400)
# m3.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=500)
# TODO: this was assertAlmostEqual, not sure if allclose will do the job here
# I replace the old delta with the atol
assert np.allclose(m1.log_likelihood(), m2.log_likelihood(), atol=200.0)
# self.assertAlmostEqual(m1.log_likelihood(), m3.log_likelihood(), 3)
preds_mean_lap, preds_var_lap = m1.predict(self.X)
preds_mean_alt, preds_var_alt = m2.predict(self.X)
# preds_mean_nested, preds_var_nested = m3.predict(self.X)
rmse_lap = self.rmse(preds_mean_lap, self.Y)
rmse_alt = self.rmse(preds_mean_alt, self.Y)
# rmse_nested = self.rmse(preds_mean_nested, self.Y_noisy)
if rmse_alt > rmse_lap:
# TODO: this was assertAlmostEqual, not sure if allclose will do the job here
# I replace the old delta with the atol
assert np.allclose(rmse_lap, rmse_alt, atol=1.5)
# m3.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, max_iters=500)