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corrected the predictive variance for Gaussian likelihoods
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4 changed files with 12 additions and 7 deletions
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@ -48,14 +48,14 @@ class probit(likelihood_function):
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def predictive_values(self,mu,var):
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"""
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Compute mean, and conficence interval (percentiles 5 and 95) of the prediction
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Compute mean, variance and conficence interval (percentiles 5 and 95) of the prediction
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"""
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mu = mu.flatten()
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var = var.flatten()
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mean = stats.norm.cdf(mu/np.sqrt(1+var))
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p_025 = np.zeros(mu.shape)
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p_975 = np.ones(mu.shape)
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return mean, p_025, p_975
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return mean, np.nan*var, p_025, p_975 # TODO: better values here (mean is okay)
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class Poisson(likelihood_function):
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"""
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@ -131,4 +131,4 @@ class Poisson(likelihood_function):
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tmp = stats.poisson.ppf(np.array([.025,.975]),mean)
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p_025 = tmp[:,0]
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p_975 = tmp[:,1]
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return mean,p_025,p_975
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return mean,np.nan*mean,p_025,p_975 # better variance here TODO
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