diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index d494630f..7ca1dd25 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -45,4 +45,4 @@ iterate.dat # git merge files # ################### -*.orig \ No newline at end of file +*.orig diff --git a/.travis.yml b/.travis.yml index fb8ddb2c..1f796285 100644 --- a/.travis.yml +++ b/.travis.yml @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ virtualenv: system_site_packages: true # command to install dependencies, e.g. pip install -r requirements.txt --use-mirrors -before_install: +before_install: - sudo apt-get install -qq python-scipy python-pip - sudo apt-get install -qq python-matplotlib # Workaround for a permissions issue with Travis virtual machine images @@ -17,10 +17,10 @@ before_install: - sudo ln -s /run/shm /dev/shm install: - - pip install --upgrade numpy==1.7.1 - - pip install sphinx + - pip install --upgrade numpy==1.7.1 + - pip install sphinx - pip install nose - pip install . --use-mirrors # command to run tests, e.g. python setup.py test -script: +script: - nosetests GPy/testing diff --git a/GPy/core/gp.py b/GPy/core/gp.py index 2ea09117..0d1b69a0 100644 --- a/GPy/core/gp.py +++ b/GPy/core/gp.py @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import numpy as np import pylab as pb from .. import kern from ..util.linalg import pdinv, mdot, tdot, dpotrs, dtrtrs -from ..likelihoods import EP +from ..likelihoods import EP, Laplace from gp_base import GPBase class GP(GPBase): @@ -25,14 +25,23 @@ class GP(GPBase): """ def __init__(self, X, likelihood, kernel, normalize_X=False): GPBase.__init__(self, X, likelihood, kernel, normalize_X=normalize_X) - self._set_params(self._get_params()) + self.update_likelihood_approximation() def _set_params(self, p): - self.kern._set_params_transformed(p[:self.kern.num_params_transformed()]) - self.likelihood._set_params(p[self.kern.num_params_transformed():]) + new_kern_params = p[:self.kern.num_params_transformed()] + new_likelihood_params = p[self.kern.num_params_transformed():] + old_likelihood_params = self.likelihood._get_params() + + self.kern._set_params_transformed(new_kern_params) + self.likelihood._set_params_transformed(new_likelihood_params) self.K = self.kern.K(self.X) + + #Re fit likelihood approximation (if it is an approx), as parameters have changed + if isinstance(self.likelihood, Laplace): + self.likelihood.fit_full(self.K) + self.K += self.likelihood.covariance_matrix self.Ki, self.L, self.Li, self.K_logdet = pdinv(self.K) @@ -49,6 +58,10 @@ class GP(GPBase): tmp, _ = dpotrs(self.L, np.asfortranarray(tmp.T), lower=1) self.dL_dK = 0.5 * (tmp - self.output_dim * self.Ki) + #Adding dZ_dK (0 for a non-approximate likelihood, compensates for + #additional gradients of K when log-likelihood has non-zero Z term) + self.dL_dK += self.likelihood.dZ_dK + def _get_params(self): return np.hstack((self.kern._get_params_transformed(), self.likelihood._get_params())) @@ -88,7 +101,6 @@ class GP(GPBase): return (-0.5 * self.num_data * self.output_dim * np.log(2.*np.pi) - 0.5 * self.output_dim * self.K_logdet + self._model_fit_term() + self.likelihood.Z) - def _log_likelihood_gradients(self): """ The gradient of all parameters. diff --git a/GPy/core/gp_base.py b/GPy/core/gp_base.py index 7b84b547..10d30358 100644 --- a/GPy/core/gp_base.py +++ b/GPy/core/gp_base.py @@ -99,13 +99,13 @@ class GPBase(Model): see also: gp_base.plot """ - kwargs['use_raw_predict'] = True + kwargs['plot_raw'] = True self.plot(*args, **kwargs) def plot(self, plot_limits=None, which_data_rows='all', which_data_ycols='all', which_parts='all', fixed_inputs=[], levels=20, samples=0, fignum=None, ax=None, resolution=None, - use_raw_predict=False, + plot_raw=False, linecol=Tango.colorsHex['darkBlue'],fillcol=Tango.colorsHex['lightBlue']): """ Plot the posterior of the GP. @@ -170,15 +170,17 @@ class GPBase(Model): Xgrid[:,i] = v #make a prediction on the frame and plot it - if use_raw_predict: + if plot_raw: m, v = self._raw_predict(Xgrid, which_parts=which_parts) lower = m - 2*np.sqrt(v) upper = m + 2*np.sqrt(v) + Y = self.likelihood.Y else: m, v, lower, upper = self.predict(Xgrid, which_parts=which_parts) + Y = self.likelihood.data for d in which_data_ycols: gpplot(Xnew, m[:, d], lower[:, d], upper[:, d], axes=ax, edgecol=linecol, fillcol=fillcol) - ax.plot(Xu[which_data_rows,free_dims], self.likelihood.data[which_data_rows, d], 'kx', mew=1.5) + ax.plot(Xu[which_data_rows,free_dims], Y[which_data_rows, d], 'kx', mew=1.5) #optionally plot some samples if samples: #NOTE not tested with fixed_inputs @@ -188,7 +190,7 @@ class GPBase(Model): #ax.plot(Xnew, yi[:,None], marker='x', linestyle='--',color=Tango.colorsHex['darkBlue']) #TODO apply this line for discrete outputs. #set the limits of the plot to some sensible values - ymin, ymax = min(np.append(self.likelihood.data, lower)), max(np.append(self.likelihood.data, upper)) + ymin, ymax = min(np.append(Y[which_data_rows, which_data_ycols].flatten(), lower)), max(np.append(Y[which_data_rows, which_data_ycols].flatten(), upper)) ymin, ymax = ymin - 0.1 * (ymax - ymin), ymax + 0.1 * (ymax - ymin) ax.set_xlim(xmin, xmax) ax.set_ylim(ymin, ymax) @@ -209,13 +211,14 @@ class GPBase(Model): #predict on the frame and plot if use_raw_predict: m, _ = self._raw_predict(Xgrid, which_parts=which_parts) + Y = self.likelihood.Y else: m, _, _, _ = self.predict(Xgrid, which_parts=which_parts) + Y = self.likelihood.data for d in which_data_ycols: m_d = m[:,d].reshape(resolution, resolution).T ax.contour(x, y, m_d, levels, vmin=m.min(), vmax=m.max(), cmap=pb.cm.jet) - Y_d = self.likelihood.Y[which_data_rows,d] - ax.scatter(self.X[which_data_rows, free_dims[0]], self.X[which_data_rows, free_dims[1]], 40, Y_d, cmap=pb.cm.jet, vmin=m.min(), vmax=m.max(), linewidth=0.) + ax.scatter(self.X[which_data_rows, free_dims[0]], self.X[which_data_rows, free_dims[1]], 40, Y[which_data_rows, d], cmap=pb.cm.jet, vmin=m.min(), vmax=m.max(), linewidth=0.) #set the limits of the plot to some sensible values ax.set_xlim(xmin[0], xmax[0]) @@ -255,4 +258,17 @@ class GPBase(Model): self.X = state.pop() Model.setstate(self, state) + def log_predictive_density(self, x_test, y_test): + """ + Calculation of the log predictive density + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param x_test: test observations (x_{*}) + :type x_test: (Nx1) array + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + """ + mu_star, var_star = self._raw_predict(x_test) + return self.likelihood.log_predictive_density(y_test, mu_star, var_star) diff --git a/GPy/core/model.py b/GPy/core/model.py index c1ab7b6a..95d4565d 100644 --- a/GPy/core/model.py +++ b/GPy/core/model.py @@ -251,7 +251,7 @@ class Model(Parameterized): self._set_params_transformed(initial_parameters) def ensure_default_constraints(self): - """ + """ Ensure that any variables which should clearly be positive have been constrained somehow. The method performs a regular expression search on parameter names looking for the terms @@ -274,7 +274,7 @@ class Model(Parameterized): """ The objective function passed to the optimizer. It combines the likelihood and the priors. - + Failures are handled robustly. The algorithm will try several times to return the objective, and will raise the original exception if it the objective cannot be computed. @@ -462,7 +462,7 @@ class Model(Parameterized): numerical_gradient = (f1 - f2) / (2 * dx) global_ratio = (f1 - f2) / (2 * np.dot(dx, np.where(gradient==0, 1e-32, gradient))) - + return (np.abs(1. - global_ratio) < tolerance) or (np.abs(gradient - numerical_gradient).mean() < tolerance) else: # check the gradient of each parameter individually, and do some pretty printing @@ -547,9 +547,9 @@ class Model(Parameterized): :param stop_crit: convergence criterion :type stop_crit: float - .. Note: kwargs are passed to update_likelihood and optimize functions. + .. Note: kwargs are passed to update_likelihood and optimize functions. """ - assert isinstance(self.likelihood, likelihoods.EP) or isinstance(self.likelihood, likelihoods.EP_Mixed_Noise), "pseudo_EM is only available for EP likelihoods" + assert isinstance(self.likelihood, (likelihoods.EP, likelihoods.EP_Mixed_Noise, likelihoods.Laplace)), "pseudo_EM is only available for approximate likelihoods" ll_change = stop_crit + 1. iteration = 0 last_ll = -np.inf diff --git a/GPy/core/sparse_gp.py b/GPy/core/sparse_gp.py index e02da768..5e381110 100644 --- a/GPy/core/sparse_gp.py +++ b/GPy/core/sparse_gp.py @@ -324,7 +324,7 @@ class SparseGP(GPBase): def plot_f(self, samples=0, plot_limits=None, which_data_rows='all', - which_data_cols='all', which_parts='all', resolution=None, + which_data_ycols='all', which_parts='all', resolution=None, full_cov=False, fignum=None, ax=None): """ @@ -359,7 +359,7 @@ class SparseGP(GPBase): if which_data_rows is 'all': which_data_rows = slice(None) - GPBase.plot_f(self, samples=samples, plot_limits=plot_limits, which_data_rows=which_data_rows, which_data_ycols=which_data_ycols, which_parts=which_parts, resolution=resolution, full_cov=full_cov, fignum=fignum, ax=ax) + GPBase.plot_f(self, samples=samples, plot_limits=plot_limits, which_data_rows=which_data_rows, which_data_ycols=which_data_ycols, which_parts=which_parts, resolution=resolution, fignum=fignum, ax=ax) if self.X.shape[1] == 1: if self.has_uncertain_inputs: @@ -379,6 +379,7 @@ class SparseGP(GPBase): def plot(self, plot_limits=None, which_data_rows='all', which_data_ycols='all', which_parts='all', fixed_inputs=[], + plot_raw=False, levels=20, samples=0, fignum=None, ax=None, resolution=None): """ Plot the posterior of the sparse GP. diff --git a/GPy/examples/classification.py b/GPy/examples/classification.py index da2ffb24..05b6af74 100644 --- a/GPy/examples/classification.py +++ b/GPy/examples/classification.py @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ def oil(num_inducing=50, max_iters=100, kernel=None): def toy_linear_1d_classification(seed=default_seed): """ - Simple 1D classification example + Simple 1D classification example using EP approximation :param seed: seed value for data generation (default is 4). :type seed: int @@ -61,6 +61,7 @@ def toy_linear_1d_classification(seed=default_seed): #m.update_likelihood_approximation() # Parameters optimization: #m.optimize() + #m.update_likelihood_approximation() m.pseudo_EM() # Plot @@ -71,6 +72,41 @@ def toy_linear_1d_classification(seed=default_seed): return m +def toy_linear_1d_classification_laplace(seed=default_seed): + """ + Simple 1D classification example using Laplace approximation + + :param seed: seed value for data generation (default is 4). + :type seed: int + + """ + + data = GPy.util.datasets.toy_linear_1d_classification(seed=seed) + Y = data['Y'][:, 0:1] + Y[Y.flatten() == -1] = 0 + + bern_noise_model = GPy.likelihoods.bernoulli() + laplace_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y.copy(), bern_noise_model) + + # Model definition + m = GPy.models.GPClassification(data['X'], Y, likelihood=laplace_likelihood) + + print m + # Optimize + #m.update_likelihood_approximation() + # Parameters optimization: + m.optimize('bfgs', messages=1) + #m.pseudo_EM() + + # Plot + fig, axes = pb.subplots(2,1) + m.plot_f(ax=axes[0]) + m.plot(ax=axes[1]) + print(m) + + return m + + def sparse_toy_linear_1d_classification(num_inducing=10,seed=default_seed): """ Sparse 1D classification example @@ -116,7 +152,7 @@ def toy_heaviside(seed=default_seed): Y[Y.flatten() == -1] = 0 # Model definition - noise_model = GPy.likelihoods.binomial(GPy.likelihoods.noise_models.gp_transformations.Heaviside()) + noise_model = GPy.likelihoods.bernoulli(GPy.likelihoods.noise_models.gp_transformations.Heaviside()) likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.EP(Y,noise_model) m = GPy.models.GPClassification(data['X'], likelihood=likelihood) diff --git a/GPy/examples/laplace_approximations.py b/GPy/examples/laplace_approximations.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..64185885 --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/examples/laplace_approximations.py @@ -0,0 +1,296 @@ +import GPy +import numpy as np +import matplotlib.pyplot as plt +from GPy.util import datasets +np.random.seed(1) + +def student_t_approx(): + """ + Example of regressing with a student t likelihood + """ + real_std = 0.1 + #Start a function, any function + X = np.linspace(0.0, np.pi*2, 100)[:, None] + Y = np.sin(X) + np.random.randn(*X.shape)*real_std + Yc = Y.copy() + + X_full = np.linspace(0.0, np.pi*2, 500)[:, None] + Y_full = np.sin(X_full) + + Y = Y/Y.max() + + #Slightly noisy data + Yc[75:80] += 1 + + #Very noisy data + #Yc[10] += 100 + #Yc[25] += 10 + #Yc[23] += 10 + #Yc[26] += 1000 + #Yc[24] += 10 + #Yc = Yc/Yc.max() + + #Add student t random noise to datapoints + deg_free = 5 + print "Real noise: ", real_std + initial_var_guess = 0.5 + + #t_rv = t(deg_free, loc=0, scale=real_var) + #noise = t_rvrvs(size=Y.shape) + #Y += noise + + plt.figure(1) + plt.suptitle('Gaussian likelihood') + # Kernel object + kernel1 = GPy.kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.white(X.shape[1]) + kernel2 = kernel1.copy() + kernel3 = kernel1.copy() + kernel4 = kernel1.copy() + kernel5 = kernel1.copy() + kernel6 = kernel1.copy() + + print "Clean Gaussian" + #A GP should completely break down due to the points as they get a lot of weight + # create simple GP model + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Y, kernel=kernel1) + # optimize + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-4) + m.randomize() + m.optimize() + # plot + ax = plt.subplot(211) + m.plot(ax=ax) + plt.plot(X_full, Y_full) + plt.ylim(-1.5, 1.5) + plt.title('Gaussian clean') + print m + + #Corrupt + print "Corrupt Gaussian" + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Yc, kernel=kernel2) + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-4) + m.randomize() + m.optimize() + ax = plt.subplot(212) + m.plot(ax=ax) + plt.plot(X_full, Y_full) + plt.ylim(-1.5, 1.5) + plt.title('Gaussian corrupt') + print m + + plt.figure(2) + plt.suptitle('Student-t likelihood') + edited_real_sd = initial_var_guess + + print "Clean student t, rasm" + t_distribution = GPy.likelihoods.noise_model_constructors.student_t(deg_free=deg_free, sigma2=edited_real_sd) + stu_t_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y.copy(), t_distribution) + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Y.copy(), kernel6, likelihood=stu_t_likelihood) + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_positive('t_noise') + m.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-4) + m.randomize() + #m.update_likelihood_approximation() + m.optimize() + print(m) + ax = plt.subplot(211) + m.plot(ax=ax) + plt.plot(X_full, Y_full) + plt.ylim(-1.5, 1.5) + plt.title('Student-t rasm clean') + + print "Corrupt student t, rasm" + t_distribution = GPy.likelihoods.noise_model_constructors.student_t(deg_free=deg_free, sigma2=edited_real_sd) + corrupt_stu_t_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Yc.copy(), t_distribution) + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Yc.copy(), kernel4, likelihood=corrupt_stu_t_likelihood) + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_positive('t_noise') + m.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-4) + m.randomize() + for a in range(1): + m.randomize() + m_start = m.copy() + print m + m.optimize('scg', messages=1) + print(m) + ax = plt.subplot(212) + m.plot(ax=ax) + plt.plot(X_full, Y_full) + plt.ylim(-1.5, 1.5) + plt.title('Student-t rasm corrupt') + + return m + +def boston_example(): + import sklearn + from sklearn.cross_validation import KFold + optimizer='bfgs' + messages=0 + data = datasets.boston_housing() + degrees_freedoms = [3, 5, 8, 10] + X = data['X'].copy() + Y = data['Y'].copy() + X = X-X.mean(axis=0) + X = X/X.std(axis=0) + Y = Y-Y.mean() + Y = Y/Y.std() + num_folds = 10 + kf = KFold(len(Y), n_folds=num_folds, indices=True) + num_models = len(degrees_freedoms) + 3 #3 for baseline, gaussian, gaussian laplace approx + score_folds = np.zeros((num_models, num_folds)) + pred_density = score_folds.copy() + + def rmse(Y, Ystar): + return np.sqrt(np.mean((Y-Ystar)**2)) + + for n, (train, test) in enumerate(kf): + X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test = X[train], X[test], Y[train], Y[test] + print "Fold {}".format(n) + + noise = 1e-1 #np.exp(-2) + rbf_len = 0.5 + data_axis_plot = 4 + plot = False + kernelstu = GPy.kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.white(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.bias(X.shape[1]) + kernelgp = GPy.kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.white(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.bias(X.shape[1]) + + #Baseline + score_folds[0, n] = rmse(Y_test, np.mean(Y_train)) + + #Gaussian GP + print "Gauss GP" + mgp = GPy.models.GPRegression(X_train.copy(), Y_train.copy(), kernel=kernelgp.copy()) + mgp.ensure_default_constraints() + mgp.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-5) + mgp['rbf_len'] = rbf_len + mgp['noise'] = noise + print mgp + mgp.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, messages=messages) + Y_test_pred = mgp.predict(X_test) + score_folds[1, n] = rmse(Y_test, Y_test_pred[0]) + pred_density[1, n] = np.mean(mgp.log_predictive_density(X_test, Y_test)) + print mgp + print pred_density + if plot: + plt.figure() + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test_pred[0]) + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test, c='r', marker='x') + plt.title('GP gauss') + + print "Gaussian Laplace GP" + N, D = Y_train.shape + g_distribution = GPy.likelihoods.noise_model_constructors.gaussian(variance=noise, N=N, D=D) + g_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y_train.copy(), g_distribution) + mg = GPy.models.GPRegression(X_train.copy(), Y_train.copy(), kernel=kernelstu.copy(), likelihood=g_likelihood) + mg.ensure_default_constraints() + mg.constrain_positive('noise_variance') + mg.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-5) + mg['rbf_len'] = rbf_len + mg['noise'] = noise + print mg + try: + mg.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, messages=messages) + except Exception: + print "Blew up" + Y_test_pred = mg.predict(X_test) + score_folds[2, n] = rmse(Y_test, Y_test_pred[0]) + pred_density[2, n] = np.mean(mg.log_predictive_density(X_test, Y_test)) + print pred_density + print mg + if plot: + plt.figure() + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test_pred[0]) + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test, c='r', marker='x') + plt.title('Lap gauss') + + for stu_num, df in enumerate(degrees_freedoms): + #Student T + print "Student-T GP {}df".format(df) + t_distribution = GPy.likelihoods.noise_model_constructors.student_t(deg_free=df, sigma2=noise) + stu_t_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y_train.copy(), t_distribution) + mstu_t = GPy.models.GPRegression(X_train.copy(), Y_train.copy(), kernel=kernelstu.copy(), likelihood=stu_t_likelihood) + mstu_t.ensure_default_constraints() + mstu_t.constrain_fixed('white', 1e-5) + mstu_t.constrain_bounded('t_noise', 0.0001, 1000) + mstu_t['rbf_len'] = rbf_len + mstu_t['t_noise'] = noise + print mstu_t + try: + mstu_t.optimize(optimizer=optimizer, messages=messages) + except Exception: + print "Blew up" + Y_test_pred = mstu_t.predict(X_test) + score_folds[3+stu_num, n] = rmse(Y_test, Y_test_pred[0]) + pred_density[3+stu_num, n] = np.mean(mstu_t.log_predictive_density(X_test, Y_test)) + print pred_density + print mstu_t + if plot: + plt.figure() + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test_pred[0]) + plt.scatter(X_test[:, data_axis_plot], Y_test, c='r', marker='x') + plt.title('Stu t {}df'.format(df)) + + print "Average scores: {}".format(np.mean(score_folds, 1)) + print "Average pred density: {}".format(np.mean(pred_density, 1)) + + #Plotting + stu_t_legends = ['Student T, df={}'.format(df) for df in degrees_freedoms] + legends = ['Baseline', 'Gaussian', 'Laplace Approx Gaussian'] + stu_t_legends + + #Plot boxplots for RMSE density + fig = plt.figure() + ax=fig.add_subplot(111) + plt.title('RMSE') + bp = ax.boxplot(score_folds.T, notch=0, sym='+', vert=1, whis=1.5) + plt.setp(bp['boxes'], color='black') + plt.setp(bp['whiskers'], color='black') + plt.setp(bp['fliers'], color='red', marker='+') + xtickNames = plt.setp(ax, xticklabels=legends) + plt.setp(xtickNames, rotation=45, fontsize=8) + ax.set_ylabel('RMSE') + ax.set_xlabel('Distribution') + #Make grid and put it below boxes + ax.yaxis.grid(True, linestyle='-', which='major', color='lightgrey', + alpha=0.5) + ax.set_axisbelow(True) + + #Plot boxplots for predictive density + fig = plt.figure() + ax=fig.add_subplot(111) + plt.title('Predictive density') + bp = ax.boxplot(pred_density[1:,:].T, notch=0, sym='+', vert=1, whis=1.5) + plt.setp(bp['boxes'], color='black') + plt.setp(bp['whiskers'], color='black') + plt.setp(bp['fliers'], color='red', marker='+') + xtickNames = plt.setp(ax, xticklabels=legends[1:]) + plt.setp(xtickNames, rotation=45, fontsize=8) + ax.set_ylabel('Mean Log probability P(Y*|Y)') + ax.set_xlabel('Distribution') + #Make grid and put it below boxes + ax.yaxis.grid(True, linestyle='-', which='major', color='lightgrey', + alpha=0.5) + ax.set_axisbelow(True) + return mstu_t + +def precipitation_example(): + import sklearn + from sklearn.cross_validation import KFold + data = datasets.boston_housing() + X = data['X'].copy() + Y = data['Y'].copy() + X = X-X.mean(axis=0) + X = X/X.std(axis=0) + Y = Y-Y.mean() + Y = Y/Y.std() + import ipdb; ipdb.set_trace() # XXX BREAKPOINT + num_folds = 10 + kf = KFold(len(Y), n_folds=num_folds, indices=True) + score_folds = np.zeros((4, num_folds)) + def rmse(Y, Ystar): + return np.sqrt(np.mean((Y-Ystar)**2)) + #for train, test in kf: + for n, (train, test) in enumerate(kf): + X_train, X_test, Y_train, Y_test = X[train], X[test], Y[train], Y[test] + print "Fold {}".format(n) diff --git a/GPy/examples/regression.py b/GPy/examples/regression.py index ca4f506d..a37e32c3 100644 --- a/GPy/examples/regression.py +++ b/GPy/examples/regression.py @@ -270,6 +270,50 @@ def toy_rbf_1d_50(max_iters=100): print(m) return m +def toy_poisson_rbf_1d(optimizer='bfgs', max_nb_eval_optim=100): + """Run a simple demonstration of a standard Gaussian process fitting it to data sampled from an RBF covariance.""" + x_len = 400 + X = np.linspace(0, 10, x_len)[:, None] + f_true = np.random.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(x_len), GPy.kern.rbf(1).K(X)) + Y = np.array([np.random.poisson(np.exp(f)) for f in f_true])[:,None] + + noise_model = GPy.likelihoods.poisson() + likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.EP(Y,noise_model) + + # create simple GP Model + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Y, likelihood=likelihood) + + # optimize + m.optimize(optimizer, max_f_eval=max_nb_eval_optim) + # plot + m.plot() + print(m) + return m + +def toy_poisson_rbf_1d_laplace(optimizer='bfgs', max_nb_eval_optim=100): + """Run a simple demonstration of a standard Gaussian process fitting it to data sampled from an RBF covariance.""" + x_len = 30 + X = np.linspace(0, 10, x_len)[:, None] + f_true = np.random.multivariate_normal(np.zeros(x_len), GPy.kern.rbf(1).K(X)) + Y = np.array([np.random.poisson(np.exp(f)) for f in f_true])[:,None] + + noise_model = GPy.likelihoods.poisson() + likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y,noise_model) + + # create simple GP Model + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X, Y, likelihood=likelihood) + + # optimize + m.optimize(optimizer, max_f_eval=max_nb_eval_optim) + # plot + m.plot() + # plot the real underlying rate function + pb.plot(X, np.exp(f_true), '--k', linewidth=2) + print(m) + return m + + + def toy_ARD(max_iters=1000, kernel_type='linear', num_samples=300, D=4): # Create an artificial dataset where the values in the targets (Y) # only depend in dimensions 1 and 3 of the inputs (X). Run ARD to diff --git a/GPy/kern/parts/hetero.py b/GPy/kern/parts/hetero.py index d3939563..c716eaad 100644 --- a/GPy/kern/parts/hetero.py +++ b/GPy/kern/parts/hetero.py @@ -1,7 +1,6 @@ # Copyright (c) 2013, GPy authors (see AUTHORS.txt). # Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) -from IPython.core.debugger import Tracer; debug_here=Tracer() from kernpart import Kernpart import numpy as np from ...util.linalg import tdot diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/__init__.py b/GPy/likelihoods/__init__.py index b98af4a3..b46b59ff 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/__init__.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/__init__.py @@ -1,8 +1,7 @@ from ep import EP +from laplace import Laplace from ep_mixed_noise import EP_Mixed_Noise from gaussian import Gaussian from gaussian_mixed_noise import Gaussian_Mixed_Noise import noise_models from noise_model_constructors import * -# TODO: from Laplace import Laplace - diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/ep.py b/GPy/likelihoods/ep.py index 4fedd66b..32575813 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/ep.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/ep.py @@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ class EP(likelihood): self.num_data, self.output_dim = self.data.shape self.is_heteroscedastic = True self.num_params = 0 - self._transf_data = self.noise_model._preprocess_values(data) #Initial values - Likelihood approximation parameters: #p(y|f) = t(f|tau_tilde,v_tilde) @@ -55,6 +54,22 @@ class EP(likelihood): raise NotImplementedError, "Cannot make correlated predictions with an EP likelihood" return self.noise_model.predictive_values(mu,var) + def log_predictive_density(self, y_test, mu_star, var_star): + """ + Calculation of the log predictive density + + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + :param mu_star: predictive mean of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type mu_star: (Nx1) array + :param var_star: predictive variance of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type var_star: (Nx1) array + """ + return self.noise_model.log_predictive_density(y_test, mu_star, var_star) + def _get_params(self): #return np.zeros(0) return self.noise_model._get_params() @@ -134,7 +149,7 @@ class EP(likelihood): self.tau_[i] = 1./Sigma[i,i] - self.eta*self.tau_tilde[i] self.v_[i] = mu[i]/Sigma[i,i] - self.eta*self.v_tilde[i] #Marginal moments - self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self._transf_data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) + self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self.data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) #Site parameters update Delta_tau = self.delta/self.eta*(1./sigma2_hat[i] - 1./Sigma[i,i]) Delta_v = self.delta/self.eta*(mu_hat[i]/sigma2_hat[i] - mu[i]/Sigma[i,i]) @@ -233,7 +248,7 @@ class EP(likelihood): self.tau_[i] = 1./Sigma_diag[i] - self.eta*self.tau_tilde[i] self.v_[i] = mu[i]/Sigma_diag[i] - self.eta*self.v_tilde[i] #Marginal moments - self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self._transf_data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) + self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self.data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) #Site parameters update Delta_tau = self.delta/self.eta*(1./sigma2_hat[i] - 1./Sigma_diag[i]) Delta_v = self.delta/self.eta*(mu_hat[i]/sigma2_hat[i] - mu[i]/Sigma_diag[i]) @@ -336,7 +351,7 @@ class EP(likelihood): self.tau_[i] = 1./Sigma_diag[i] - self.eta*self.tau_tilde[i] self.v_[i] = mu[i]/Sigma_diag[i] - self.eta*self.v_tilde[i] #Marginal moments - self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self._transf_data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) + self.Z_hat[i], mu_hat[i], sigma2_hat[i] = self.noise_model.moments_match(self.data[i],self.tau_[i],self.v_[i]) #Site parameters update Delta_tau = self.delta/self.eta*(1./sigma2_hat[i] - 1./Sigma_diag[i]) Delta_v = self.delta/self.eta*(mu_hat[i]/sigma2_hat[i] - mu[i]/Sigma_diag[i]) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/gaussian.py b/GPy/likelihoods/gaussian.py index da13ddb0..85c028b4 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/gaussian.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/gaussian.py @@ -90,11 +90,25 @@ class Gaussian(likelihood): _95pc = mean + 2.*np.sqrt(true_var) return mean, true_var, _5pc, _95pc - def fit_full(self): + def log_predictive_density(self, y_test, mu_star, var_star): """ - No approximations needed + Calculation of the log predictive density + + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + :param mu_star: predictive mean of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type mu_star: (Nx1) array + :param var_star: predictive variance of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type var_star: (Nx1) array + + .. Note: + Works as if each test point was provided individually, i.e. not full_cov """ - pass + y_rescaled = (y_test - self._offset)/self._scale + return -0.5*np.log(2*np.pi) -0.5*np.log(var_star + self._variance) -0.5*(np.square(y_rescaled - mu_star))/(var_star + self._variance) def _gradients(self, partial): return np.sum(partial) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/laplace.py b/GPy/likelihoods/laplace.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6a44d5b6 --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/laplace.py @@ -0,0 +1,390 @@ +# Copyright (c) 2013, GPy authors (see AUTHORS.txt). +# Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) +# +#Parts of this file were influenced by the Matlab GPML framework written by +#Carl Edward Rasmussen & Hannes Nickisch, however all bugs are our own. +# +#The GPML code is released under the FreeBSD License. +#Copyright (c) 2005-2013 Carl Edward Rasmussen & Hannes Nickisch. All rights reserved. +# +#The code and associated documentation is available from +#http://gaussianprocess.org/gpml/code. + +import numpy as np +import scipy as sp +from likelihood import likelihood +from ..util.linalg import mdot, jitchol, pddet, dpotrs +from functools import partial as partial_func + +class Laplace(likelihood): + """Laplace approximation to a posterior""" + + def __init__(self, data, noise_model, extra_data=None): + """ + Laplace Approximation + + Find the moments \hat{f} and the hessian at this point + (using Newton-Raphson) of the unnormalised posterior + + Compute the GP variables (i.e. generate some Y^{squiggle} and + z^{squiggle} which makes a gaussian the same as the laplace + approximation to the posterior, but normalised + + Arguments + --------- + + :param data: array of data the likelihood function is approximating + :type data: NxD + :param noise_model: likelihood function - subclass of noise_model + :type noise_model: noise_model + :param extra_data: additional data used by some likelihood functions, + """ + self.data = data + self.noise_model = noise_model + self.extra_data = extra_data + + #Inital values + self.N, self.D = self.data.shape + self.is_heteroscedastic = True + self.Nparams = 0 + self.NORMAL_CONST = ((0.5 * self.N) * np.log(2 * np.pi)) + + self.restart() + likelihood.__init__(self) + + def restart(self): + """ + Reset likelihood variables to their defaults + """ + #Initial values for the GP variables + self.Y = np.zeros((self.N, 1)) + self.covariance_matrix = np.eye(self.N) + self.precision = np.ones(self.N)[:, None] + self.Z = 0 + self.YYT = None + + self.old_Ki_f = None + + def predictive_values(self, mu, var, full_cov): + if full_cov: + raise NotImplementedError("Cannot make correlated predictions\ + with an Laplace likelihood") + return self.noise_model.predictive_values(mu, var) + + def log_predictive_density(self, y_test, mu_star, var_star): + """ + Calculation of the log predictive density + + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + :param mu_star: predictive mean of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type mu_star: (Nx1) array + :param var_star: predictive variance of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type var_star: (Nx1) array + """ + return self.noise_model.log_predictive_density(y_test, mu_star, var_star) + + def _get_params(self): + return np.asarray(self.noise_model._get_params()) + + def _get_param_names(self): + return self.noise_model._get_param_names() + + def _set_params(self, p): + return self.noise_model._set_params(p) + + def _shared_gradients_components(self): + d3lik_d3fhat = self.noise_model.d3logpdf_df3(self.f_hat, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + dL_dfhat = 0.5*(np.diag(self.Ki_W_i)[:, None]*d3lik_d3fhat).T #why isn't this -0.5? + I_KW_i = np.eye(self.N) - np.dot(self.K, self.Wi_K_i) + return dL_dfhat, I_KW_i + + def _Kgradients(self): + """ + Gradients with respect to prior kernel parameters dL_dK to be chained + with dK_dthetaK to give dL_dthetaK + :returns: dL_dK matrix + :rtype: Matrix (1 x num_kernel_params) + """ + dL_dfhat, I_KW_i = self._shared_gradients_components() + dlp = self.noise_model.dlogpdf_df(self.f_hat, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + #Explicit + #expl_a = np.dot(self.Ki_f, self.Ki_f.T) + #expl_b = self.Wi_K_i + #expl = 0.5*expl_a - 0.5*expl_b + #dL_dthetaK_exp = dK_dthetaK(expl, X) + + #Implicit + impl = mdot(dlp, dL_dfhat, I_KW_i) + + #No longer required as we are computing these in the gp already + #otherwise we would take them away and add them back + #dL_dthetaK_imp = dK_dthetaK(impl, X) + #dL_dthetaK = dL_dthetaK_exp + dL_dthetaK_imp + #dL_dK = expl + impl + + #No need to compute explicit as we are computing dZ_dK to account + #for the difference between the K gradients of a normal GP, + #and the K gradients including the implicit part + dL_dK = impl + return dL_dK + + def _gradients(self, partial): + """ + Gradients with respect to likelihood parameters (dL_dthetaL) + + :param partial: Not needed by this likelihood + :type partial: lambda function + :rtype: array of derivatives (1 x num_likelihood_params) + """ + dL_dfhat, I_KW_i = self._shared_gradients_components() + dlik_dthetaL, dlik_grad_dthetaL, dlik_hess_dthetaL = self.noise_model._laplace_gradients(self.f_hat, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + #len(dlik_dthetaL) + num_params = len(self._get_param_names()) + # make space for one derivative for each likelihood parameter + dL_dthetaL = np.zeros(num_params) + for thetaL_i in range(num_params): + #Explicit + dL_dthetaL_exp = ( np.sum(dlik_dthetaL[:, thetaL_i]) + #- 0.5*np.trace(mdot(self.Ki_W_i, (self.K, np.diagflat(dlik_hess_dthetaL[thetaL_i])))) + + np.dot(0.5*np.diag(self.Ki_W_i)[:,None].T, dlik_hess_dthetaL[:, thetaL_i]) + ) + + #Implicit + dfhat_dthetaL = mdot(I_KW_i, self.K, dlik_grad_dthetaL[:, thetaL_i]) + dL_dthetaL_imp = np.dot(dL_dfhat, dfhat_dthetaL) + dL_dthetaL[thetaL_i] = dL_dthetaL_exp + dL_dthetaL_imp + + return dL_dthetaL + + def _compute_GP_variables(self): + """ + Generate data Y which would give the normal distribution identical + to the laplace approximation to the posterior, but normalised + + GPy expects a likelihood to be gaussian, so need to caluclate + the data Y^{\tilde} that makes the posterior match that found + by a laplace approximation to a non-gaussian likelihood but with + a gaussian likelihood + + Firstly, + The hessian of the unormalised posterior distribution is (K^{-1} + W)^{-1}, + i.e. z*N(f|f^{\hat}, (K^{-1} + W)^{-1}) but this assumes a non-gaussian likelihood, + we wish to find the hessian \Sigma^{\tilde} + that has the same curvature but using our new simulated data Y^{\tilde} + i.e. we do N(Y^{\tilde}|f^{\hat}, \Sigma^{\tilde})N(f|0, K) = z*N(f|f^{\hat}, (K^{-1} + W)^{-1}) + and we wish to find what Y^{\tilde} and \Sigma^{\tilde} + We find that Y^{\tilde} = W^{-1}(K^{-1} + W)f^{\hat} and \Sigma^{tilde} = W^{-1} + + Secondly, + GPy optimizes the log marginal log p(y) = -0.5*ln|K+\Sigma^{\tilde}| - 0.5*Y^{\tilde}^{T}(K^{-1} + \Sigma^{tilde})^{-1}Y + lik.Z + So we can suck up any differences between that and our log marginal likelihood approximation + p^{\squiggle}(y) = -0.5*f^{\hat}K^{-1}f^{\hat} + log p(y|f^{\hat}) - 0.5*log |K||K^{-1} + W| + which we want to optimize instead, by equating them and rearranging, the difference is added onto + the log p(y) that GPy optimizes by default + + Thirdly, + Since we have gradients that depend on how we move f^{\hat}, we have implicit components + aswell as the explicit dL_dK, we hold these differences in dZ_dK and add them to dL_dK in the + gp.py code + """ + Wi = 1.0/self.W + self.Sigma_tilde = np.diagflat(Wi) + + Y_tilde = Wi*self.Ki_f + self.f_hat + + self.Wi_K_i = self.W12BiW12 + self.ln_det_Wi_K = pddet(self.Sigma_tilde + self.K) + self.lik = self.noise_model.logpdf(self.f_hat, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + self.y_Wi_Ki_i_y = mdot(Y_tilde.T, self.Wi_K_i, Y_tilde) + + Z_tilde = (+ self.lik + - 0.5*self.ln_B_det + + 0.5*self.ln_det_Wi_K + - 0.5*self.f_Ki_f + + 0.5*self.y_Wi_Ki_i_y + ) + + #Convert to float as its (1, 1) and Z must be a scalar + self.Z = np.float64(Z_tilde) + self.Y = Y_tilde + self.YYT = np.dot(self.Y, self.Y.T) + self.covariance_matrix = self.Sigma_tilde + self.precision = 1.0 / np.diag(self.covariance_matrix)[:, None] + + #Compute dZ_dK which is how the approximated distributions gradients differ from the dL_dK computed for other likelihoods + self.dZ_dK = self._Kgradients() + #+ 0.5*self.Wi_K_i - 0.5*np.dot(self.Ki_f, self.Ki_f.T) #since we are not adding the K gradients explicit part theres no need to compute this again + + def fit_full(self, K): + """ + The laplace approximation algorithm, find K and expand hessian + For nomenclature see Rasmussen & Williams 2006 - modified for numerical stability + + :param K: Prior covariance matrix evaluated at locations X + :type K: NxN matrix + """ + self.K = K.copy() + + #Find mode + self.f_hat = self.rasm_mode(self.K) + + #Compute hessian and other variables at mode + self._compute_likelihood_variables() + + #Compute fake variables replicating laplace approximation to posterior + self._compute_GP_variables() + + def _compute_likelihood_variables(self): + """ + Compute the variables required to compute gaussian Y variables + """ + #At this point get the hessian matrix (or vector as W is diagonal) + self.W = -self.noise_model.d2logpdf_df2(self.f_hat, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + #TODO: Could save on computation when using rasm by returning these, means it isn't just a "mode finder" though + self.W12BiW12, self.ln_B_det = self._compute_B_statistics(self.K, self.W, np.eye(self.N)) + + self.Ki_f = self.Ki_f + self.f_Ki_f = np.dot(self.f_hat.T, self.Ki_f) + self.Ki_W_i = self.K - mdot(self.K, self.W12BiW12, self.K) + + def _compute_B_statistics(self, K, W, a): + """ + Rasmussen suggests the use of a numerically stable positive definite matrix B + Which has a positive diagonal element and can be easyily inverted + + :param K: Prior Covariance matrix evaluated at locations X + :type K: NxN matrix + :param W: Negative hessian at a point (diagonal matrix) + :type W: Vector of diagonal values of hessian (1xN) + :param a: Matrix to calculate W12BiW12a + :type a: Matrix NxN + :returns: (W12BiW12, ln_B_det) + """ + if not self.noise_model.log_concave: + #print "Under 1e-10: {}".format(np.sum(W < 1e-10)) + W[W < 1e-6] = 1e-6 # FIXME-HACK: This is a hack since GPy can't handle negative variances which can occur + # If the likelihood is non-log-concave. We wan't to say that there is a negative variance + # To cause the posterior to become less certain than the prior and likelihood, + # This is a property only held by non-log-concave likelihoods + + + #W is diagonal so its sqrt is just the sqrt of the diagonal elements + W_12 = np.sqrt(W) + B = np.eye(self.N) + W_12*K*W_12.T + L = jitchol(B) + + W12BiW12 = W_12*dpotrs(L, np.asfortranarray(W_12*a), lower=1)[0] + ln_B_det = 2*np.sum(np.log(np.diag(L))) + return W12BiW12, ln_B_det + + def rasm_mode(self, K, MAX_ITER=30): + """ + Rasmussen's numerically stable mode finding + For nomenclature see Rasmussen & Williams 2006 + Influenced by GPML (BSD) code, all errors are our own + + :param K: Covariance matrix evaluated at locations X + :type K: NxD matrix + :param MAX_ITER: Maximum number of iterations of newton-raphson before forcing finish of optimisation + :type MAX_ITER: scalar + :returns: f_hat, mode on which to make laplace approxmiation + :rtype: NxD matrix + """ + #old_Ki_f = np.zeros((self.N, 1)) + + #Start f's at zero originally + if self.old_Ki_f is None: + old_Ki_f = np.zeros((self.N, 1)) + f = np.dot(K, old_Ki_f) + else: + #Start at the old best point + old_Ki_f = self.old_Ki_f.copy() + f = self.f_hat.copy() + + new_obj = -np.inf + old_obj = np.inf + + def obj(Ki_f, f): + return -0.5*np.dot(Ki_f.T, f) + self.noise_model.logpdf(f, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + difference = np.inf + epsilon = 1e-5 + #step_size = 1 + #rs = 0 + i = 0 + + while difference > epsilon and i < MAX_ITER: + W = -self.noise_model.d2logpdf_df2(f, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + W_f = W*f + grad = self.noise_model.dlogpdf_df(f, self.data, extra_data=self.extra_data) + + b = W_f + grad + W12BiW12Kb, _ = self._compute_B_statistics(K, W.copy(), np.dot(K, b)) + + #Work out the DIRECTION that we want to move in, but don't choose the stepsize yet + full_step_Ki_f = b - W12BiW12Kb + dKi_f = full_step_Ki_f - old_Ki_f + + f_old = f.copy() + def inner_obj(step_size, old_Ki_f, dKi_f, K): + Ki_f = old_Ki_f + step_size*dKi_f + f = np.dot(K, Ki_f) + # This is nasty, need to set something within an optimization though + self.tmp_Ki_f = Ki_f.copy() + self.tmp_f = f.copy() + return -obj(Ki_f, f) + + i_o = partial_func(inner_obj, old_Ki_f=old_Ki_f, dKi_f=dKi_f, K=K) + #Find the stepsize that minimizes the objective function using a brent line search + #The tolerance and maxiter matter for speed! Seems to be best to keep them low and make more full + #steps than get this exact then make a step, if B was bigger it might be the other way around though + new_obj = sp.optimize.minimize_scalar(i_o, method='brent', tol=1e-4, options={'maxiter':5}).fun + f = self.tmp_f.copy() + Ki_f = self.tmp_Ki_f.copy() + + #Optimize without linesearch + #f_old = f.copy() + #update_passed = False + #while not update_passed: + #Ki_f = old_Ki_f + step_size*dKi_f + #f = np.dot(K, Ki_f) + + #old_obj = new_obj + #new_obj = obj(Ki_f, f) + #difference = new_obj - old_obj + ##print "difference: ",difference + #if difference < 0: + ##print "Objective function rose", np.float(difference) + ##If the objective function isn't rising, restart optimization + #step_size *= 0.8 + ##print "Reducing step-size to {ss:.3} and restarting optimization".format(ss=step_size) + ##objective function isn't increasing, try reducing step size + #f = f_old.copy() #it's actually faster not to go back to old location and just zigzag across the mode + #old_obj = new_obj + #rs += 1 + #else: + #update_passed = True + + #old_Ki_f = self.Ki_f.copy() + + #difference = abs(new_obj - old_obj) + #old_obj = new_obj.copy() + #difference = np.abs(np.sum(f - f_old)) + difference = np.abs(np.sum(Ki_f - old_Ki_f)) + old_Ki_f = Ki_f.copy() + i += 1 + + self.old_Ki_f = old_Ki_f.copy() + if difference > epsilon: + print "Not perfect f_hat fit difference: {}".format(difference) + + self.Ki_f = Ki_f + return f diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/likelihood.py b/GPy/likelihoods/likelihood.py index ca187305..5e7c8c68 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/likelihood.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/likelihood.py @@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ class likelihood(Parameterized): """ def __init__(self): Parameterized.__init__(self) + self.dZ_dK = 0 def _get_params(self): raise NotImplementedError @@ -33,11 +34,36 @@ class likelihood(Parameterized): def _set_params(self, x): raise NotImplementedError - def fit(self): - raise NotImplementedError + def fit_full(self, K): + """ + No approximations needed by default + """ + pass + + def restart(self): + """ + No need to restart if not an approximation + """ + pass def _gradients(self, partial): raise NotImplementedError def predictive_values(self, mu, var): raise NotImplementedError + + def log_predictive_density(self, y_test, mu_star, var_star): + """ + Calculation of the predictive density + + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + :param mu_star: predictive mean of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type mu_star: (Nx1) array + :param var_star: predictive variance of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type var_star: (Nx1) array + """ + raise NotImplementedError diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_model_constructors.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_model_constructors.py index ec971e04..e626c6a3 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_model_constructors.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_model_constructors.py @@ -4,9 +4,9 @@ import numpy as np import noise_models -def binomial(gp_link=None): +def bernoulli(gp_link=None): """ - Construct a binomial likelihood + Construct a bernoulli likelihood :param gp_link: a GPy gp_link function """ @@ -27,16 +27,17 @@ def binomial(gp_link=None): analytical_mean = False analytical_variance = False - return noise_models.binomial_noise.Binomial(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) + return noise_models.bernoulli_noise.Bernoulli(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) def exponential(gp_link=None): + """ - Construct a binomial likelihood + Construct a exponential likelihood :param gp_link: a GPy gp_link function """ if gp_link is None: - gp_link = noise_models.gp_transformations.Identity() + gp_link = noise_models.gp_transformations.Log_ex_1() analytical_mean = False analytical_variance = False @@ -85,4 +86,36 @@ def gamma(gp_link=None,beta=1.): analytical_variance = False return noise_models.gamma_noise.Gamma(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance,beta) +def gaussian(gp_link=None, variance=2, D=None, N=None): + """ + Construct a Gaussian likelihood + :param gp_link: a GPy gp_link function + :param variance: variance + :type variance: scalar + :returns: Gaussian noise model: + """ + if gp_link is None: + gp_link = noise_models.gp_transformations.Identity() + analytical_mean = True + analytical_variance = True # ? + return noise_models.gaussian_noise.Gaussian(gp_link, analytical_mean, + analytical_variance, variance=variance, D=D, N=N) + +def student_t(gp_link=None, deg_free=5, sigma2=2): + """ + Construct a Student t likelihood + + :param gp_link: a GPy gp_link function + :param deg_free: degrees of freedom of student-t + :type deg_free: scalar + :param sigma2: variance + :type sigma2: scalar + :returns: Student-T noise model + """ + if gp_link is None: + gp_link = noise_models.gp_transformations.Identity() + analytical_mean = True + analytical_variance = True + return noise_models.student_t_noise.StudentT(gp_link, analytical_mean, + analytical_variance,deg_free, sigma2) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/__init__.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/__init__.py index b47702a7..d1d134dc 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/__init__.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/__init__.py @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ import noise_distributions -import binomial_noise +import bernoulli_noise import exponential_noise import gaussian_noise import gamma_noise import poisson_noise +import student_t_noise import gp_transformations diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/bernoulli_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/bernoulli_noise.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2c4116da --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/bernoulli_noise.py @@ -0,0 +1,216 @@ +# Copyright (c) 2012, 2013 Ricardo Andrade +# Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) + + +import numpy as np +from scipy import stats,special +import scipy as sp +from GPy.util.univariate_Gaussian import std_norm_pdf,std_norm_cdf +import gp_transformations +from noise_distributions import NoiseDistribution + +class Bernoulli(NoiseDistribution): + """ + Bernoulli likelihood + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\lambda(f_{i})^{y_{i}}(1-f_{i})^{1-y_{i}} + + .. Note:: + Y is expected to take values in {-1,1} + Probit likelihood usually used + """ + def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False): + super(Bernoulli, self).__init__(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) + + def _preprocess_values(self,Y): + """ + Check if the values of the observations correspond to the values + assumed by the likelihood function. + + ..Note:: Binary classification algorithm works better with classes {-1,1} + """ + Y_prep = Y.copy() + Y1 = Y[Y.flatten()==1].size + Y2 = Y[Y.flatten()==0].size + assert Y1 + Y2 == Y.size, 'Bernoulli likelihood is meant to be used only with outputs in {0,1}.' + Y_prep[Y.flatten() == 0] = -1 + return Y_prep + + def _moments_match_analytical(self,data_i,tau_i,v_i): + """ + Moments match of the marginal approximation in EP algorithm + + :param i: number of observation (int) + :param tau_i: precision of the cavity distribution (float) + :param v_i: mean/variance of the cavity distribution (float) + """ + if data_i == 1: + sign = 1. + elif data_i == 0: + sign = -1 + else: + raise ValueError("bad value for Bernouilli observation (0,1)") + if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Probit): + z = sign*v_i/np.sqrt(tau_i**2 + tau_i) + Z_hat = std_norm_cdf(z) + phi = std_norm_pdf(z) + mu_hat = v_i/tau_i + sign*phi/(Z_hat*np.sqrt(tau_i**2 + tau_i)) + sigma2_hat = 1./tau_i - (phi/((tau_i**2+tau_i)*Z_hat))*(z+phi/Z_hat) + + elif isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): + a = sign*v_i/np.sqrt(tau_i) + Z_hat = std_norm_cdf(a) + N = std_norm_pdf(a) + mu_hat = v_i/tau_i + sign*N/Z_hat/np.sqrt(tau_i) + sigma2_hat = (1. - a*N/Z_hat - np.square(N/Z_hat))/tau_i + if np.any(np.isnan([Z_hat, mu_hat, sigma2_hat])): + stop + else: + raise ValueError("Exact moment matching not available for link {}".format(self.gp_link.gp_transformations.__name__)) + + return Z_hat, mu_hat, sigma2_hat + + def _predictive_mean_analytical(self,mu,sigma): + if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Probit): + return stats.norm.cdf(mu/np.sqrt(1+sigma**2)) + elif isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): + return stats.norm.cdf(mu/sigma) + else: + raise NotImplementedError + + def _predictive_variance_analytical(self,mu,sigma, pred_mean): + if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): + return 0. + else: + raise NotImplementedError + + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\lambda(f_{i})^{y_{i}}(1-f_{i})^{1-y_{i}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in bernoulli + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + + .. Note: + Each y_i must be in {0,1} + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + objective = (link_f**y) * ((1.-link_f)**(1.-y)) + return np.exp(np.sum(np.log(objective))) + + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Log Likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = y_{i}\\log\\lambda(f_{i}) + (1-y_{i})\\log (1-f_{i}) + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in bernoulli + :returns: log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + #objective = y*np.log(link_f) + (1.-y)*np.log(link_f) + objective = np.where(y==1, np.log(link_f), np.log(1-link_f)) + return np.sum(objective) + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the pdf at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d\\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{y_{i}}{\\lambda(f_{i})} - \\frac{(1 - y_{i})}{(1 - \\lambda(f_{i}))} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in bernoulli + :returns: gradient of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + grad = (y/link_f) - (1.-y)/(1-link_f) + return grad + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link_f, w.r.t link_f the hessian will be 0 unless i == j + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2}\\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)^{2}} = \\frac{-y_{i}}{\\lambda(f)^{2}} - \\frac{(1-y_{i})}{(1-\\lambda(f))^{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in bernoulli + :returns: Diagonal of log hessian matrix (second derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f)) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + d2logpdf_dlink2 = -y/(link_f**2) - (1-y)/((1-link_f)**2) + return d2logpdf_dlink2 + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{2y_{i}}{\\lambda(f)^{3}} - \\frac{2(1-y_{i}}{(1-\\lambda(f))^{3}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in bernoulli + :returns: third derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + d3logpdf_dlink3 = 2*(y/(link_f**3) - (1-y)/((1-link_f)**3)) + return d3logpdf_dlink3 + + def _mean(self,gp): + """ + Mass (or density) function + """ + return self.gp_link.transf(gp) + + def _variance(self,gp): + """ + Mass (or density) function + """ + p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) + return p*(1.-p) + + def samples(self, gp): + """ + Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. + + :param gp: latent variable + """ + orig_shape = gp.shape + gp = gp.flatten() + ns = np.ones_like(gp, dtype=int) + Ysim = np.random.binomial(ns, self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + return Ysim.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/binomial_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/binomial_noise.py deleted file mode 100644 index c0bb8be4..00000000 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/binomial_noise.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,132 +0,0 @@ -# Copyright (c) 2012, 2013 Ricardo Andrade -# Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) - - -import numpy as np -from scipy import stats,special -import scipy as sp -from GPy.util.univariate_Gaussian import std_norm_pdf,std_norm_cdf -import gp_transformations -from noise_distributions import NoiseDistribution - -class Binomial(NoiseDistribution): - """ - Probit likelihood - Y is expected to take values in {-1,1} - ----- - $$ - L(x) = \\Phi (Y_i*f_i) - $$ - """ - def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False): - super(Binomial, self).__init__(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) - - def _preprocess_values(self,Y): - """ - Check if the values of the observations correspond to the values - assumed by the likelihood function. - - ..Note:: Binary classification algorithm works better with classes {-1,1} - """ - Y_prep = Y.copy() - Y1 = Y[Y.flatten()==1].size - Y2 = Y[Y.flatten()==0].size - assert Y1 + Y2 == Y.size, 'Binomial likelihood is meant to be used only with outputs in {0,1}.' - Y_prep[Y.flatten() == 0] = -1 - return Y_prep - - def _moments_match_analytical(self,data_i,tau_i,v_i): - """ - Moments match of the marginal approximation in EP algorithm - - :param i: number of observation (int) - :param tau_i: precision of the cavity distribution (float) - :param v_i: mean/variance of the cavity distribution (float) - """ - if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Probit): - z = data_i*v_i/np.sqrt(tau_i**2 + tau_i) - Z_hat = std_norm_cdf(z) - phi = std_norm_pdf(z) - mu_hat = v_i/tau_i + data_i*phi/(Z_hat*np.sqrt(tau_i**2 + tau_i)) - sigma2_hat = 1./tau_i - (phi/((tau_i**2+tau_i)*Z_hat))*(z+phi/Z_hat) - - elif isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): - a = data_i*v_i/np.sqrt(tau_i) - Z_hat = std_norm_cdf(a) - N = std_norm_pdf(a) - mu_hat = v_i/tau_i + data_i*N/Z_hat/np.sqrt(tau_i) - sigma2_hat = (1. - a*N/Z_hat - np.square(N/Z_hat))/tau_i - if np.any(np.isnan([Z_hat, mu_hat, sigma2_hat])): - stop - - return Z_hat, mu_hat, sigma2_hat - - def _predictive_mean_analytical(self,mu,sigma): - if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Probit): - return stats.norm.cdf(mu/np.sqrt(1+sigma**2)) - elif isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): - return stats.norm.cdf(mu/sigma) - else: - raise NotImplementedError - - def _predictive_variance_analytical(self,mu,sigma, pred_mean): - if isinstance(self.gp_link,gp_transformations.Heaviside): - return 0. - else: - raise NotImplementedError - - def _mass(self,gp,obs): - #NOTE obs must be in {0,1} - p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return p**obs * (1.-p)**(1.-obs) - - def _nlog_mass(self,gp,obs): - p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return obs*np.log(p) + (1.-obs)*np.log(1-p) - - def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self,gp,obs): - p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - dp = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - return obs/p * dp - (1.-obs)/(1.-p) * dp - - def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self,gp,obs): - p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return (obs/p + (1.-obs)/(1.-p))*self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) + ((1.-obs)/(1.-p)**2-obs/p**2)*self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _mean(self,gp): - """ - Mass (or density) function - """ - return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - - def _dmean_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _d2mean_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - - def _variance(self,gp): - """ - Mass (or density) function - """ - p = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return p*(1.-p) - - def _dvariance_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*(1. - 2.*self.gp_link.transf(gp)) - - def _d2variance_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)*(1. - 2.*self.gp_link.transf(gp)) - 2*self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)**2 - - - def samples(self, gp): - """ - Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. - - :param size: number of samples to compute - :param gp: latent variable - """ - orig_shape = gp.shape - gp = gp.flatten() - Ysim = np.array([np.random.binomial(1,self.gp_link.transf(gpj),size=1) for gpj in gp]) - return Ysim.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/exponential_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/exponential_noise.py index 56e63c75..602ccea5 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/exponential_noise.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/exponential_noise.py @@ -24,24 +24,113 @@ class Exponential(NoiseDistribution): def _preprocess_values(self,Y): return Y - def _mass(self,gp,obs): + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Mass (or density) function - """ - return np.exp(-obs/self.gp_link.transf(gp))/self.gp_link.transf(gp) + Likelihood function given link(f) - def _nlog_mass(self,gp,obs): - """ - Negative logarithm of the un-normalized distribution: factors that are not a function of gp are omitted - """ - return obs/self.gp_link.transf(gp) + np.log(self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\lambda(f_{i})\\exp (-y\\lambda(f_{i})) - def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self,gp,obs): - return ( 1./self.gp_link.transf(gp) - obs/self.gp_link.transf(gp)**2) * self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in exponential distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + log_objective = link_f*np.exp(-y*link_f) + return np.exp(np.sum(np.log(log_objective))) + #return np.exp(np.sum(-y/link_f - np.log(link_f) )) - def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self,gp,obs): - fgp = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return (2*obs/fgp**3 - 1./fgp**2) * self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)**2 + ( 1./fgp - obs/fgp**2) * self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Log Likelihood Function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i})) = \\ln \\lambda(f_{i}) - y_{i}\\lambda(f_{i}) + + :param link_f: latent variables (link(f)) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in exponential distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + log_objective = np.log(link_f) - y*link_f + #logpdf_link = np.sum(-np.log(link_f) - y/link_f) + return np.sum(log_objective) + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log likelihood function at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{1}{\\lambda(f)} - y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables (f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in exponential distribution + :returns: gradient of likelihood evaluated at points + :rtype: Nx1 array + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + grad = 1./link_f - y + #grad = y/(link_f**2) - 1./link_f + return grad + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link(f), w.r.t link(f) + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) and link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + The hessian will be 0 unless i == j + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)} = -\\frac{1}{\\lambda(f_{i})^{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in exponential distribution + :returns: Diagonal of hessian matrix (second derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + hess = -1./(link_f**2) + #hess = -2*y/(link_f**3) + 1/(link_f**2) + return hess + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{2}{\\lambda(f_{i})^{3}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in exponential distribution + :returns: third derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + d3lik_dlink3 = 2./(link_f**3) + #d3lik_dlink3 = 6*y/(link_f**4) - 2./(link_f**3) + return d3lik_dlink3 def _mean(self,gp): """ @@ -49,20 +138,19 @@ class Exponential(NoiseDistribution): """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - def _dmean_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _d2mean_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - def _variance(self,gp): """ Mass (or density) function """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp)**2 - def _dvariance_dgp(self,gp): - return 2*self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) + def samples(self, gp): + """ + Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. - def _d2variance_dgp2(self,gp): - return 2 * (self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)**2 + self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)) + :param gp: latent variable + """ + orig_shape = gp.shape + gp = gp.flatten() + Ysim = np.random.exponential(1.0/self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + return Ysim.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gamma_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gamma_noise.py index 6bf0dd7b..2be3106a 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gamma_noise.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gamma_noise.py @@ -12,11 +12,11 @@ from noise_distributions import NoiseDistribution class Gamma(NoiseDistribution): """ Gamma likelihood - Y is expected to take values in {0,1,2,...} - ----- - $$ - L(x) = \exp(\lambda) * \lambda**Y_i / Y_i! - $$ + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\beta^{\\alpha_{i}}}{\\Gamma(\\alpha_{i})}y_{i}^{\\alpha_{i}-1}e^{-\\beta y_{i}}\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + """ def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False,beta=1.): self.beta = beta @@ -25,26 +25,122 @@ class Gamma(NoiseDistribution): def _preprocess_values(self,Y): return Y - def _mass(self,gp,obs): + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Mass (or density) function + Likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\beta^{\\alpha_{i}}}{\\Gamma(\\alpha_{i})}y_{i}^{\\alpha_{i}-1}e^{-\\beta y_{i}}\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape #return stats.gamma.pdf(obs,a = self.gp_link.transf(gp)/self.variance,scale=self.variance) - alpha = self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta - return obs**(alpha - 1.) * np.exp(-self.beta*obs) * self.beta**alpha / special.gamma(alpha) + alpha = link_f*self.beta + objective = (y**(alpha - 1.) * np.exp(-self.beta*y) * self.beta**alpha)/ special.gamma(alpha) + return np.exp(np.sum(np.log(objective))) - def _nlog_mass(self,gp,obs): + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Negative logarithm of the un-normalized distribution: factors that are not a function of gp are omitted + Log Likelihood Function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i})) = \\alpha_{i}\\log \\beta - \\log \\Gamma(\\alpha_{i}) + (\\alpha_{i} - 1)\\log y_{i} - \\beta y_{i}\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables (link(f)) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ - alpha = self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta - return (1. - alpha)*np.log(obs) + self.beta*obs - alpha * np.log(self.beta) + np.log(special.gamma(alpha)) + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + #alpha = self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta + #return (1. - alpha)*np.log(obs) + self.beta*obs - alpha * np.log(self.beta) + np.log(special.gamma(alpha)) + alpha = link_f*self.beta + log_objective = alpha*np.log(self.beta) - np.log(special.gamma(alpha)) + (alpha - 1)*np.log(y) - self.beta*y + return np.sum(log_objective) - def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self,gp,obs): - return -self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta*np.log(obs) + special.psi(self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta) * self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log likelihood function at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) - def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self,gp,obs): - return -self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)*self.beta*np.log(obs) + special.polygamma(1,self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta)*(self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta)**2 + special.psi(self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta)*self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)*self.beta + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\beta (\\log \\beta y_{i}) - \\Psi(\\alpha_{i})\\beta\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables (f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in gamma distribution + :returns: gradient of likelihood evaluated at points + :rtype: Nx1 array + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + grad = self.beta*np.log(self.beta*y) - special.psi(self.beta*link_f)*self.beta + #old + #return -self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta*np.log(obs) + special.psi(self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta) * self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta + return grad + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link(f), w.r.t link(f) + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) and link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + The hessian will be 0 unless i == j + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)} = -\\beta^{2}\\frac{d\\Psi(\\alpha_{i})}{d\\alpha_{i}}\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in gamma distribution + :returns: Diagonal of hessian matrix (second derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + hess = -special.polygamma(1, self.beta*link_f)*(self.beta**2) + #old + #return -self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)*self.beta*np.log(obs) + special.polygamma(1,self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta)*(self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)*self.beta)**2 + special.psi(self.gp_link.transf(gp)*self.beta)*self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)*self.beta + return hess + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = -\\beta^{3}\\frac{d^{2}\\Psi(\\alpha_{i})}{d\\alpha_{i}}\\\\ + \\alpha_{i} = \\beta y_{i} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in gamma distribution + :returns: third derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + d3lik_dlink3 = -special.polygamma(2, self.beta*link_f)*(self.beta**3) + return d3lik_dlink3 def _mean(self,gp): """ @@ -52,20 +148,8 @@ class Gamma(NoiseDistribution): """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - def _dmean_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _d2mean_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - def _variance(self,gp): """ Mass (or density) function """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp)/self.beta - - def _dvariance_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)/self.beta - - def _d2variance_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp)/self.beta diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gaussian_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gaussian_noise.py index 93ac9acd..fce84d27 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gaussian_noise.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gaussian_noise.py @@ -12,11 +12,17 @@ class Gaussian(NoiseDistribution): """ Gaussian likelihood - :param mean: mean value of the Gaussian distribution - :param variance: mean value of the Gaussian distribution + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = -\\frac{N \\ln 2\\pi}{2} - \\frac{\\ln |K|}{2} - \\frac{(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))^{T}\\sigma^{-2}(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))}{2} + + :param variance: variance value of the Gaussian distribution + :param N: Number of data points + :type N: int """ - def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False,variance=1.): + def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False,variance=1., D=None, N=None): self.variance = variance + self.N = N + self._set_params(np.asarray(variance)) super(Gaussian, self).__init__(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) def _get_params(self): @@ -25,8 +31,13 @@ class Gaussian(NoiseDistribution): def _get_param_names(self): return ['noise_model_variance'] - def _set_params(self,p): - self.variance = p + def _set_params(self, p): + self.variance = float(p) + self.I = np.eye(self.N) + self.covariance_matrix = self.I * self.variance + self.Ki = self.I*(1.0 / self.variance) + #self.ln_det_K = np.sum(np.log(np.diag(self.covariance_matrix))) + self.ln_det_K = self.N*np.log(self.variance) def _gradients(self,partial): return np.zeros(1) @@ -57,42 +68,231 @@ class Gaussian(NoiseDistribution): new_sigma2 = self.predictive_variance(mu,sigma) return new_sigma2*(mu/sigma**2 + self.gp_link.transf(mu)/self.variance) - def _predictive_variance_analytical(self,mu,sigma): + def _predictive_variance_analytical(self,mu,sigma,predictive_mean=None): return 1./(1./self.variance + 1./sigma**2) - def _mass(self,gp,obs): - #return std_norm_pdf( (self.gp_link.transf(gp)-obs)/np.sqrt(self.variance) ) - return stats.norm.pdf(obs,self.gp_link.transf(gp),np.sqrt(self.variance)) + def _mass(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + NotImplementedError("Deprecated, now doing chain in noise_model.py for link function evaluation\ + Please negate your function and use pdf in noise_model.py, if implementing a likelihood\ + rederivate the derivative without doing the chain and put in logpdf, dlogpdf_dlink or\ + its derivatives") + def _nlog_mass(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + NotImplementedError("Deprecated, now doing chain in noise_model.py for link function evaluation\ + Please negate your function and use logpdf in noise_model.py, if implementing a likelihood\ + rederivate the derivative without doing the chain and put in logpdf, dlogpdf_dlink or\ + its derivatives") - def _nlog_mass(self,gp,obs): - return .5*((self.gp_link.transf(gp)-obs)**2/self.variance + np.log(2.*np.pi*self.variance)) + def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + NotImplementedError("Deprecated, now doing chain in noise_model.py for link function evaluation\ + Please negate your function and use dlogpdf_df in noise_model.py, if implementing a likelihood\ + rederivate the derivative without doing the chain and put in logpdf, dlogpdf_dlink or\ + its derivatives") - def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self,gp,obs): - return (self.gp_link.transf(gp)-obs)/self.variance * self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) + def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + NotImplementedError("Deprecated, now doing chain in noise_model.py for link function evaluation\ + Please negate your function and use d2logpdf_df2 in noise_model.py, if implementing a likelihood\ + rederivate the derivative without doing the chain and put in logpdf, dlogpdf_dlink or\ + its derivatives") - def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self,gp,obs): - return ((self.gp_link.transf(gp)-obs)*self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) + self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)**2)/self.variance + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = -\\frac{N \\ln 2\\pi}{2} - \\frac{\\ln |K|}{2} - \\frac{(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))^{T}\\sigma^{-2}(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))}{2} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ + #Assumes no covariance, exp, sum, log for numerical stability + return np.exp(np.sum(np.log(stats.norm.pdf(y, link_f, np.sqrt(self.variance))))) + + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Log likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = -\\frac{N \\ln 2\\pi}{2} - \\frac{\\ln |K|}{2} - \\frac{(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))^{T}\\sigma^{-2}(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))}{2} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: log likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + return -0.5*(np.sum((y-link_f)**2/self.variance) + self.ln_det_K + self.N*np.log(2.*np.pi)) + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the pdf at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{1}{\\sigma^{2}}(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i})) + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: gradient of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + s2_i = (1.0/self.variance) + grad = s2_i*y - s2_i*link_f + return grad + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link_f, w.r.t link_f. + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + + The hessian will be 0 unless i == j + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}f} = -\\frac{1}{\\sigma^{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: Diagonal of log hessian matrix (second derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f)) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + hess = -(1.0/self.variance)*np.ones((self.N, 1)) + return hess + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = 0 + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: third derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + d3logpdf_dlink3 = np.diagonal(0*self.I)[:, None] + return d3logpdf_dlink3 + + def dlogpdf_link_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log-likelihood function at y given link(f), w.r.t variance parameter (noise_variance) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\sigma^{2}} = -\\frac{N}{2\\sigma^{2}} + \\frac{(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))^{2}}{2\\sigma^{4}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + e = y - link_f + s_4 = 1.0/(self.variance**2) + dlik_dsigma = -0.5*self.N/self.variance + 0.5*s_4*np.sum(np.square(e)) + return np.sum(dlik_dsigma) # Sure about this sum? + + def dlogpdf_dlink_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Derivative of the dlogpdf_dlink w.r.t variance parameter (noise_variance) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d}{d\\sigma^{2}}(\\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)}) = \\frac{1}{\\sigma^{4}}(-y_{i} + \\lambda(f_{i})) + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: derivative of log likelihood evaluated at points link(f) w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + s_4 = 1.0/(self.variance**2) + dlik_grad_dsigma = -s_4*y + s_4*link_f + return dlik_grad_dsigma + + def d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the hessian (d2logpdf_dlink2) w.r.t variance parameter (noise_variance) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d}{d\\sigma^{2}}(\\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)}) = \\frac{1}{\\sigma^{4}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data not used in gaussian + :returns: derivative of log hessian evaluated at points link(f_i) and link(f_j) w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.asarray(link_f).shape == np.asarray(y).shape + s_4 = 1.0/(self.variance**2) + d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar = np.diag(s_4*self.I)[:, None] + return d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar + + def dlogpdf_link_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + dlogpdf_dvar = self.dlogpdf_link_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return np.asarray([[dlogpdf_dvar]]) + + def dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + dlogpdf_dlink_dvar = self.dlogpdf_dlink_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return dlogpdf_dlink_dvar + + def d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar = self.d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar def _mean(self,gp): """ - Mass (or density) function + Expected value of y under the Mass (or density) function p(y|f) + + .. math:: + E_{p(y|f)}[y] """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - def _dmean_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _d2mean_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - def _variance(self,gp): """ - Mass (or density) function + Variance of y under the Mass (or density) function p(y|f) + + .. math:: + Var_{p(y|f)}[y] """ return self.variance - def _dvariance_dgp(self,gp): - return 0 + def samples(self, gp): + """ + Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. - def _d2variance_dgp2(self,gp): - return 0 + :param gp: latent variable + """ + orig_shape = gp.shape + gp = gp.flatten() + Ysim = np.array([np.random.normal(self.gp_link.transf(gpj), scale=np.sqrt(self.variance), size=1) for gpj in gp]) + return Ysim.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gp_transformations.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gp_transformations.py index dc83c461..65730418 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gp_transformations.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/gp_transformations.py @@ -24,19 +24,25 @@ class GPTransformation(object): """ Gaussian process tranformation function, latent space -> output space """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError def dtransf_df(self,f): """ derivative of transf(f) w.r.t. f """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError def d2transf_df2(self,f): """ second derivative of transf(f) w.r.t. f """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError + + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + """ + third derivative of transf(f) w.r.t. f + """ + raise NotImplementedError class Identity(GPTransformation): """ @@ -49,10 +55,13 @@ class Identity(GPTransformation): return f def dtransf_df(self,f): - return 1. + return np.ones_like(f) def d2transf_df2(self,f): - return 0 + return np.zeros_like(f) + + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + return np.zeros_like(f) class Probit(GPTransformation): @@ -71,6 +80,10 @@ class Probit(GPTransformation): def d2transf_df2(self,f): return -f * std_norm_pdf(f) + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + f2 = f**2 + return -(1/(np.sqrt(2*np.pi)))*np.exp(-0.5*(f2))*(1-f2) + class Log(GPTransformation): """ .. math:: @@ -87,6 +100,9 @@ class Log(GPTransformation): def d2transf_df2(self,f): return np.exp(f) + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + return np.exp(f) + class Log_ex_1(GPTransformation): """ .. math:: @@ -104,15 +120,23 @@ class Log_ex_1(GPTransformation): aux = np.exp(f)/(1.+np.exp(f)) return aux*(1.-aux) + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + aux = np.exp(f)/(1.+np.exp(f)) + daux_df = aux*(1.-aux) + return daux_df - (2.*aux*daux_df) + class Reciprocal(GPTransformation): def transf(self,f): return 1./f def dtransf_df(self,f): - return -1./f**2 + return -1./(f**2) def d2transf_df2(self,f): - return 2./f**3 + return 2./(f**3) + + def d3transf_df3(self,f): + return -6./(f**4) class Heaviside(GPTransformation): """ diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/noise_distributions.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/noise_distributions.py index 913c2b9d..77cc82a4 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/noise_distributions.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/noise_distributions.py @@ -9,15 +9,12 @@ import pylab as pb from GPy.util.plot import gpplot from GPy.util.univariate_Gaussian import std_norm_pdf,std_norm_cdf import gp_transformations - +from GPy.util.misc import chain_1, chain_2, chain_3 +from scipy.integrate import quad class NoiseDistribution(object): """ - Likelihood class for doing Expectation propagation - - :param Y: observed output (Nx1 numpy.darray) - - .. note:: Y values allowed depend on the LikelihoodFunction used + Likelihood class for doing approximations """ def __init__(self,gp_link,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False): assert isinstance(gp_link,gp_transformations.GPTransformation), "gp_link is not a valid GPTransformation." @@ -35,6 +32,8 @@ class NoiseDistribution(object): else: self.predictive_variance = self._predictive_variance_numerical + self.log_concave = True + def _get_params(self): return np.zeros(0) @@ -57,369 +56,379 @@ class NoiseDistribution(object): """ return Y - def _product(self,gp,obs,mu,sigma): - """ - Product between the cavity distribution and a likelihood factor. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param obs: observed output - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return stats.norm.pdf(gp,loc=mu,scale=sigma) * self._mass(gp,obs) - - def _nlog_product_scaled(self,gp,obs,mu,sigma): - """ - Negative log-product between the cavity distribution and a likelihood factor. - - .. note:: The constant term in the Gaussian distribution is ignored. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param obs: observed output - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return .5*((gp-mu)/sigma)**2 + self._nlog_mass(gp,obs) - - def _dnlog_product_dgp(self,gp,obs,mu,sigma): - """ - Derivative wrt latent variable of the log-product between the cavity distribution and a likelihood factor. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param obs: observed output - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return (gp - mu)/sigma**2 + self._dnlog_mass_dgp(gp,obs) - - def _d2nlog_product_dgp2(self,gp,obs,mu,sigma): - """ - Second derivative wrt latent variable of the log-product between the cavity distribution and a likelihood factor. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param obs: observed output - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return 1./sigma**2 + self._d2nlog_mass_dgp2(gp,obs) - - def _product_mode(self,obs,mu,sigma): - """ - Newton's CG method to find the mode in _product (cavity x likelihood factor). - - :param obs: observed output - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return sp.optimize.fmin_ncg(self._nlog_product_scaled,x0=mu,fprime=self._dnlog_product_dgp,fhess=self._d2nlog_product_dgp2,args=(obs,mu,sigma),disp=False) - def _moments_match_analytical(self,obs,tau,v): """ If available, this function computes the moments analytically. """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError + + def log_predictive_density(self, y_test, mu_star, var_star): + """ + Calculation of the log predictive density + + .. math: + p(y_{*}|D) = p(y_{*}|f_{*})p(f_{*}|\mu_{*}\\sigma^{2}_{*}) + + :param y_test: test observations (y_{*}) + :type y_test: (Nx1) array + :param mu_star: predictive mean of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type mu_star: (Nx1) array + :param var_star: predictive variance of gaussian p(f_{*}|mu_{*}, var_{*}) + :type var_star: (Nx1) array + """ + assert y_test.shape==mu_star.shape + assert y_test.shape==var_star.shape + assert y_test.shape[1] == 1 + def integral_generator(y, m, v): + """Generate a function which can be integrated to give p(Y*|Y) = int p(Y*|f*)p(f*|Y) df*""" + def f(f_star): + return self.pdf(f_star, y)*np.exp(-(1./(2*v))*np.square(m-f_star)) + return f + + scaled_p_ystar, accuracy = zip(*[quad(integral_generator(y, m, v), -np.inf, np.inf) for y, m, v in zip(y_test.flatten(), mu_star.flatten(), var_star.flatten())]) + scaled_p_ystar = np.array(scaled_p_ystar).reshape(-1,1) + p_ystar = scaled_p_ystar/np.sqrt(2*np.pi*var_star) + return np.log(p_ystar) def _moments_match_numerical(self,obs,tau,v): """ - Lapace approximation to calculate the moments. + Calculation of moments using quadrature :param obs: observed output :param tau: cavity distribution 1st natural parameter (precision) :param v: cavity distribution 2nd natural paramenter (mu*precision) - """ + #Compute first integral for zeroth moment mu = v/tau - mu_hat = self._product_mode(obs,mu,np.sqrt(1./tau)) - sigma2_hat = 1./(tau + self._d2nlog_mass_dgp2(mu_hat,obs)) - Z_hat = np.exp(-.5*tau*(mu_hat-mu)**2) * self._mass(mu_hat,obs)*np.sqrt(tau*sigma2_hat) - return Z_hat,mu_hat,sigma2_hat + def int_1(f): + return self.pdf(f, obs)*np.exp(-0.5*tau*np.square(mu-f)) + z, accuracy = quad(int_1, -np.inf, np.inf) + z /= np.sqrt(2*np.pi/tau) - def _nlog_conditional_mean_scaled(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Negative logarithm of the l.v.'s predictive distribution times the output's mean given the l.v. + #Compute second integral for first moment + def int_2(f): + return f*self.pdf(f, obs)*np.exp(-0.5*tau*np.square(mu-f)) + mean, accuracy = quad(int_2, -np.inf, np.inf) + mean /= np.sqrt(2*np.pi/tau) + mean /= z - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation + #Compute integral for variance + def int_3(f): + return (f**2)*self.pdf(f, obs)*np.exp(-0.5*tau*np.square(mu-f)) + Ef2, accuracy = quad(int_3, -np.inf, np.inf) + Ef2 /= np.sqrt(2*np.pi/tau) + Ef2 /= z + variance = Ef2 - mean**2 - .. note:: This function helps computing E(Y_star) = E(E(Y_star|f_star)) - - """ - return .5*((gp - mu)/sigma)**2 - np.log(self._mean(gp)) - - def _dnlog_conditional_mean_dgp(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Derivative of _nlog_conditional_mean_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return (gp - mu)/sigma**2 - self._dmean_dgp(gp)/self._mean(gp) - - def _d2nlog_conditional_mean_dgp2(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Second derivative of _nlog_conditional_mean_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return 1./sigma**2 - self._d2mean_dgp2(gp)/self._mean(gp) + (self._dmean_dgp(gp)/self._mean(gp))**2 - - def _nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Negative logarithm of the l.v.'s predictive distribution times the output's variance given the l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - .. note:: This function helps computing E(V(Y_star|f_star)) - - """ - return .5*((gp - mu)/sigma)**2 - np.log(self._variance(gp)) - - def _dnlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Derivative of _nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return (gp - mu)/sigma**2 - self._dvariance_dgp(gp)/self._variance(gp) - - def _d2nlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp2(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Second derivative of _nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return 1./sigma**2 - self._d2variance_dgp2(gp)/self._variance(gp) + (self._dvariance_dgp(gp)/self._variance(gp))**2 - - def _nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_scaled(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Negative logarithm of the l.v.'s predictive distribution times the output's mean squared given the l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - .. note:: This function helps computing E( E(Y_star|f_star)**2 ) - - """ - return .5*((gp - mu)/sigma)**2 - 2*np.log(self._mean(gp)) - - def _dnlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_dgp(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Derivative of _nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return (gp - mu)/sigma**2 - 2*self._dmean_dgp(gp)/self._mean(gp) - - def _d2nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_dgp2(self,gp,mu,sigma): - """ - Second derivative of _nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_scaled wrt. l.v. - - :param gp: latent variable - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - return 1./sigma**2 - 2*( self._d2mean_dgp2(gp)/self._mean(gp) - (self._dmean_dgp(gp)/self._mean(gp))**2 ) + return z, mean, variance def _predictive_mean_analytical(self,mu,sigma): """ + Predictive mean + .. math:: + E(Y^{*}|Y) = E( E(Y^{*}|f^{*}, Y) ) + If available, this function computes the predictive mean analytically. """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError def _predictive_variance_analytical(self,mu,sigma): """ + Predictive variance + .. math:: + V(Y^{*}| Y) = E( V(Y^{*}|f^{*}, Y) ) + V( E(Y^{*}|f^{*}, Y) ) + If available, this function computes the predictive variance analytically. """ - pass + raise NotImplementedError def _predictive_mean_numerical(self,mu,sigma): """ - Laplace approximation to the predictive mean: E(Y_star) = E( E(Y_star|f_star) ) + Quadrature calculation of the predictive mean: E(Y_star|Y) = E( E(Y_star|f_star, Y) ) - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation + :param mu: mean of posterior + :param sigma: standard deviation of posterior """ - maximum = sp.optimize.fmin_ncg(self._nlog_conditional_mean_scaled,x0=self._mean(mu),fprime=self._dnlog_conditional_mean_dgp,fhess=self._d2nlog_conditional_mean_dgp2,args=(mu,sigma),disp=False) - mean = np.exp(-self._nlog_conditional_mean_scaled(maximum,mu,sigma))/(np.sqrt(self._d2nlog_conditional_mean_dgp2(maximum,mu,sigma))*sigma) - """ + #FIXME: Quadrature does not work! + raise NotImplementedError + sigma2 = sigma**2 + #Compute first moment + def int_mean(f): + return self._mean(f)*np.exp(-(0.5/sigma2)*np.square(f - mu)) + scaled_mean, accuracy = quad(int_mean, -np.inf, np.inf) + mean = scaled_mean / np.sqrt(2*np.pi*(sigma2)) - pb.figure() - x = np.array([mu + step*sigma for step in np.linspace(-7,7,100)]) - f = np.array([np.exp(-self._nlog_conditional_mean_scaled(xi,mu,sigma))/np.sqrt(2*np.pi*sigma**2) for xi in x]) - pb.plot(x,f,'b-') - sigma2 = 1./self._d2nlog_conditional_mean_dgp2(maximum,mu,sigma) - f2 = np.exp(-.5*(x-maximum)**2/sigma2)/np.sqrt(2*np.pi*sigma2) - k = np.exp(-self._nlog_conditional_mean_scaled(maximum,mu,sigma))*np.sqrt(sigma2)/np.sqrt(sigma**2) - pb.plot(x,f2*mean,'r-') - pb.vlines(maximum,0,f.max()) - """ return mean - def _predictive_mean_sq(self,mu,sigma): - """ - Laplace approximation to the predictive mean squared: E(Y_star**2) = E( E(Y_star|f_star)**2 ) - - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - - """ - maximum = sp.optimize.fmin_ncg(self._nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_scaled,x0=self._mean(mu),fprime=self._dnlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_dgp,fhess=self._d2nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_dgp2,args=(mu,sigma),disp=False) - mean_squared = np.exp(-self._nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_scaled(maximum,mu,sigma))/(np.sqrt(self._d2nlog_exp_conditional_mean_sq_dgp2(maximum,mu,sigma))*sigma) - return mean_squared - def _predictive_variance_numerical(self,mu,sigma,predictive_mean=None): """ Laplace approximation to the predictive variance: V(Y_star) = E( V(Y_star|f_star) ) + V( E(Y_star|f_star) ) - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation + :param mu: mean of posterior + :param sigma: standard deviation of posterior :predictive_mean: output's predictive mean, if None _predictive_mean function will be called. """ + sigma2 = sigma**2 + normalizer = np.sqrt(2*np.pi*sigma2) + # E( V(Y_star|f_star) ) - maximum = sp.optimize.fmin_ncg(self._nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled,x0=self._variance(mu),fprime=self._dnlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp,fhess=self._d2nlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp2,args=(mu,sigma),disp=False) - exp_var = np.exp(-self._nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled(maximum,mu,sigma))/(np.sqrt(self._d2nlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp2(maximum,mu,sigma))*sigma) + #Compute expected value of variance + def int_var(f): + return self._variance(f)*np.exp(-(0.5/sigma2)*np.square(f - mu)) + scaled_exp_variance, accuracy = quad(int_var, -np.inf, np.inf) + exp_var = scaled_exp_variance / normalizer - """ - pb.figure() - x = np.array([mu + step*sigma for step in np.linspace(-7,7,100)]) - f = np.array([np.exp(-self._nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled(xi,mu,sigma))/np.sqrt(2*np.pi*sigma**2) for xi in x]) - pb.plot(x,f,'b-') - sigma2 = 1./self._d2nlog_exp_conditional_variance_dgp2(maximum,mu,sigma) - f2 = np.exp(-.5*(x-maximum)**2/sigma2)/np.sqrt(2*np.pi*sigma2) - k = np.exp(-self._nlog_exp_conditional_variance_scaled(maximum,mu,sigma))*np.sqrt(sigma2)/np.sqrt(sigma**2) - pb.plot(x,f2*exp_var,'r--') - pb.vlines(maximum,0,f.max()) - """ - - #V( E(Y_star|f_star) ) = E( E(Y_star|f_star)**2 ) - E( E(Y_star|f_star)**2 ) - exp_exp2 = self._predictive_mean_sq(mu,sigma) + #V( E(Y_star|f_star) ) = E( E(Y_star|f_star)**2 ) - E( E(Y_star|f_star) )**2 if predictive_mean is None: predictive_mean = self.predictive_mean(mu,sigma) + + predictive_mean_sq = predictive_mean**2 + def int_pred_mean_sq(f): + return predictive_mean_sq*np.exp(-(0.5/(sigma2))*np.square(f - mu)) + + scaled_exp_exp2, accuracy = quad(int_pred_mean_sq, -np.inf, np.inf) + exp_exp2 = scaled_exp_exp2 / normalizer + var_exp = exp_exp2 - predictive_mean**2 + # V(Y_star | f_star) = E( V(Y_star|f_star) ) + V( E(Y_star|f_star) ) return exp_var + var_exp - def _predictive_percentiles(self,p,mu,sigma): + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def dlogpdf_link_dtheta(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + raise NotImplementedError + + def pdf(self, f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Percentiles of the predictive distribution + Evaluates the link function link(f) then computes the likelihood (pdf) using it - :parm p: lower tail probability - :param mu: cavity distribution mean - :param sigma: cavity distribution standard deviation - :predictive_mean: output's predictive mean, if None _predictive_mean function will be called. + .. math: + p(y|\\lambda(f)) + :param f: latent variables f + :type f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution - not used + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float """ - qf = stats.norm.ppf(p,mu,sigma) - return self.gp_link.transf(qf) + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + return self.pdf_link(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) - def _nlog_joint_predictive_scaled(self,x,mu,sigma): + def logpdf(self, f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Negative logarithm of the joint predictive distribution (latent variable and output). + Evaluates the link function link(f) then computes the log likelihood (log pdf) using it - :param x: tuple (latent variable,output) - :param mu: latent variable's predictive mean - :param sigma: latent variable's predictive standard deviation + .. math: + \\log p(y|\\lambda(f)) + :param f: latent variables f + :type f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution - not used + :returns: log likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float """ - return self._nlog_product_scaled(x[0],x[1],mu,sigma) + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + return self.logpdf_link(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) - def _gradient_nlog_joint_predictive(self,x,mu,sigma): + def dlogpdf_df(self, f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Gradient of _nlog_joint_predictive_scaled. + Evaluates the link function link(f) then computes the derivative of log likelihood using it + Uses the Faa di Bruno's formula for the chain rule - :param x: tuple (latent variable,output) - :param mu: latent variable's predictive mean - :param sigma: latent variable's predictive standard deviation - - .. note: Only available when the output is continuous + .. math:: + \\frac{d\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{df} = \\frac{d\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{d\\lambda(f)}\\frac{d\\lambda(f)}{df} + :param f: latent variables f + :type f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution - not used + :returns: derivative of log likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: 1xN array """ - assert not self.discrete, "Gradient not available for discrete outputs." - return np.array((self._dnlog_product_dgp(gp=x[0],obs=x[1],mu=mu,sigma=sigma),self._dnlog_mass_dobs(obs=x[1],gp=x[0]))) + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + dlogpdf_dlink = self.dlogpdf_dlink(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + dlink_df = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(f) + return chain_1(dlogpdf_dlink, dlink_df) - def _hessian_nlog_joint_predictive(self,x,mu,sigma): + def d2logpdf_df2(self, f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Hessian of _nlog_joint_predictive_scaled. + Evaluates the link function link(f) then computes the second derivative of log likelihood using it + Uses the Faa di Bruno's formula for the chain rule - :param x: tuple (latent variable,output) - :param mu: latent variable's predictive mean - :param sigma: latent variable's predictive standard deviation - - .. note: Only available when the output is continuous + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2}\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{df^{2}} = \\frac{d^{2}\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)}\\left(\\frac{d\\lambda(f)}{df}\\right)^{2} + \\frac{d\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{d\\lambda(f)}\\frac{d^{2}\\lambda(f)}{df^{2}} + :param f: latent variables f + :type f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution - not used + :returns: second derivative of log likelihood evaluated for this point (diagonal only) + :rtype: 1xN array """ - assert not self.discrete, "Hessian not available for discrete outputs." - cross_derivative = self._d2nlog_mass_dcross(gp=x[0],obs=x[1]) - return np.array((self._d2nlog_product_dgp2(gp=x[0],obs=x[1],mu=mu,sigma=sigma),cross_derivative,cross_derivative,self._d2nlog_mass_dobs2(obs=x[1],gp=x[0]))).reshape(2,2) + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + d2logpdf_dlink2 = self.d2logpdf_dlink2(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + dlink_df = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(f) + dlogpdf_dlink = self.dlogpdf_dlink(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + d2link_df2 = self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(f) + return chain_2(d2logpdf_dlink2, dlink_df, dlogpdf_dlink, d2link_df2) - def _joint_predictive_mode(self,mu,sigma): + def d3logpdf_df3(self, f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Negative logarithm of the joint predictive distribution (latent variable and output). + Evaluates the link function link(f) then computes the third derivative of log likelihood using it + Uses the Faa di Bruno's formula for the chain rule - :param x: tuple (latent variable,output) - :param mu: latent variable's predictive mean - :param sigma: latent variable's predictive standard deviation + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3}\\log p(y|\\lambda(f))}{df^{3}} = \\frac{d^{3}\\log p(y|\\lambda(f)}{d\\lambda(f)^{3}}\\left(\\frac{d\\lambda(f)}{df}\\right)^{3} + 3\\frac{d^{2}\\log p(y|\\lambda(f)}{d\\lambda(f)^{2}}\\frac{d\\lambda(f)}{df}\\frac{d^{2}\\lambda(f)}{df^{2}} + \\frac{d\\log p(y|\\lambda(f)}{d\\lambda(f)}\\frac{d^{3}\\lambda(f)}{df^{3}} + :param f: latent variables f + :type f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution - not used + :returns: third derivative of log likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float """ - return sp.optimize.fmin_ncg(self._nlog_joint_predictive_scaled,x0=(mu,self.gp_link.transf(mu)),fprime=self._gradient_nlog_joint_predictive,fhess=self._hessian_nlog_joint_predictive,args=(mu,sigma),disp=False) + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + d3logpdf_dlink3 = self.d3logpdf_dlink3(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + dlink_df = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(f) + d2logpdf_dlink2 = self.d2logpdf_dlink2(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + d2link_df2 = self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(f) + dlogpdf_dlink = self.dlogpdf_dlink(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + d3link_df3 = self.gp_link.d3transf_df3(f) + return chain_3(d3logpdf_dlink3, dlink_df, d2logpdf_dlink2, d2link_df2, dlogpdf_dlink, d3link_df3) - def predictive_values(self,mu,var): + def dlogpdf_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + TODO: Doc strings + """ + if len(self._get_param_names()) > 0: + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + return self.dlogpdf_link_dtheta(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + else: + #Is no parameters so return an empty array for its derivatives + return np.empty([1, 0]) + + def dlogpdf_df_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + TODO: Doc strings + """ + if len(self._get_param_names()) > 0: + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + dlink_df = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(f) + dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta = self.dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return chain_1(dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta, dlink_df) + else: + #Is no parameters so return an empty array for its derivatives + return np.empty([f.shape[0], 0]) + + def d2logpdf_df2_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + TODO: Doc strings + """ + if len(self._get_param_names()) > 0: + link_f = self.gp_link.transf(f) + dlink_df = self.gp_link.dtransf_df(f) + d2link_df2 = self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(f) + d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta = self.d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta = self.dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta(link_f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return chain_2(d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta, dlink_df, dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta, d2link_df2) + else: + #Is no parameters so return an empty array for its derivatives + return np.empty([f.shape[0], 0]) + + def _laplace_gradients(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + dlogpdf_dtheta = self.dlogpdf_dtheta(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + dlogpdf_df_dtheta = self.dlogpdf_df_dtheta(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + d2logpdf_df2_dtheta = self.d2logpdf_df2_dtheta(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + + #Parameters are stacked vertically. Must be listed in same order as 'get_param_names' + # ensure we have gradients for every parameter we want to optimize + assert dlogpdf_dtheta.shape[1] == len(self._get_param_names()) + assert dlogpdf_df_dtheta.shape[1] == len(self._get_param_names()) + assert d2logpdf_df2_dtheta.shape[1] == len(self._get_param_names()) + return dlogpdf_dtheta, dlogpdf_df_dtheta, d2logpdf_df2_dtheta + + def predictive_values(self, mu, var, full_cov=False, num_samples=30000, + sampling=False): """ Compute mean, variance and conficence interval (percentiles 5 and 95) of the prediction. - :param mu: mean of the latent variable - :param var: variance of the latent variable + :param mu: mean of the latent variable, f, of posterior + :param var: variance of the latent variable, f, of posterior + :param full_cov: whether to use the full covariance or just the diagonal + :type full_cov: Boolean + :param num_samples: number of samples to use in computing quantiles and + possibly mean variance + :type num_samples: integer + :param sampling: Whether to use samples for mean and variances anyway + :type sampling: Boolean """ - if isinstance(mu,float) or isinstance(mu,int): - mu = [mu] - var = [var] - pred_mean = [] - pred_var = [] - q1 = [] - q3 = [] - for m,s in zip(mu,np.sqrt(var)): - pred_mean.append(self.predictive_mean(m,s)) - pred_var.append(self.predictive_variance(m,s,pred_mean[-1])) - q1.append(self._predictive_percentiles(.025,m,s)) - q3.append(self._predictive_percentiles(.975,m,s)) + + #Get gp_samples f* using posterior mean and variance + if not full_cov: + gp_samples = np.random.multivariate_normal(mu.flatten(), np.diag(var.flatten()), + size=num_samples).T + else: + gp_samples = np.random.multivariate_normal(mu.flatten(), var, + size=num_samples).T + + #Push gp samples (f*) through likelihood to give p(y*|f*) + samples = self.samples(gp_samples) + axis=-1 + + if self.analytical_mean and not sampling: + pred_mean = self.predictive_mean(mu, np.sqrt(var)) + else: + pred_mean = np.mean(samples, axis=axis) + + if self.analytical_variance and not sampling: + pred_var = self.predictive_variance(mu, np.sqrt(var), pred_mean) + else: + pred_var = np.var(samples, axis=axis) + + #Calculate quantiles from samples + q1 = np.percentile(samples, 2.5, axis=axis) + q3 = np.percentile(samples, 97.5, axis=axis) + print "WARNING: Using sampling to calculate predictive quantiles" + pred_mean = np.vstack(pred_mean) pred_var = np.vstack(pred_var) q1 = np.vstack(q1) q3 = np.vstack(q3) return pred_mean, pred_var, q1, q3 - def samples(self, gp): """ Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. :param gp: latent variable """ - pass - + raise NotImplementedError diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/poisson_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/poisson_noise.py index 33de84cd..b0300704 100644 --- a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/poisson_noise.py +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/poisson_noise.py @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ +from __future__ import division # Copyright (c) 2012, 2013 Ricardo Andrade # Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) - import numpy as np from scipy import stats,special import scipy as sp @@ -14,9 +14,10 @@ class Poisson(NoiseDistribution): Poisson likelihood .. math:: - L(x) = \\exp(\\lambda) * \\frac{\\lambda^Y_i}{Y_i!} + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\lambda(f_{i})^{y_{i}}}{y_{i}!}e^{-\\lambda(f_{i})} - ..Note: Y is expected to take values in {0,1,2,...} + .. Note:: + Y is expected to take values in {0,1,2,...} """ def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=False,analytical_variance=False): super(Poisson, self).__init__(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) @@ -24,25 +25,108 @@ class Poisson(NoiseDistribution): def _preprocess_values(self,Y): #TODO return Y - def _mass(self,gp,obs): + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): """ - Mass (or density) function - """ - return stats.poisson.pmf(obs,self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + Likelihood function given link(f) - def _nlog_mass(self,gp,obs): - """ - Negative logarithm of the un-normalized distribution: factors that are not a function of gp are omitted - """ - return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - obs * np.log(self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + np.log(special.gamma(obs+1)) + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\lambda(f_{i})^{y_{i}}}{y_{i}!}e^{-\\lambda(f_{i})} - def _dnlog_mass_dgp(self,gp,obs): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) * (1. - obs/self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + return np.prod(stats.poisson.pmf(y,link_f)) - def _d2nlog_mass_dgp2(self,gp,obs): - d2_df = self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - transf = self.gp_link.transf(gp) - return obs * ((self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)/transf)**2 - d2_df/transf) + d2_df + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Log Likelihood Function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i})) = -\\lambda(f_{i}) + y_{i}\\log \\lambda(f_{i}) - \\log y_{i}! + + :param link_f: latent variables (link(f)) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + return np.sum(-link_f + y*np.log(link_f) - special.gammaln(y+1)) + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log likelihood function at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{y_{i}}{\\lambda(f_{i})} - 1 + + :param link_f: latent variables (f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: gradient of likelihood evaluated at points + :rtype: Nx1 array + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + return y/link_f - 1 + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link(f), w.r.t link(f) + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) and link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + The hessian will be 0 unless i == j + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{-y_{i}}{\\lambda(f_{i})^{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: Diagonal of hessian matrix (second derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + hess = -y/(link_f**2) + return hess + #d2_df = self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) + #transf = self.gp_link.transf(gp) + #return obs * ((self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp)/transf)**2 - d2_df/transf) + d2_df + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{2y_{i}}{\\lambda(f_{i})^{3}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in poisson distribution + :returns: third derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + d3lik_dlink3 = 2*y/(link_f)**3 + return d3lik_dlink3 def _mean(self,gp): """ @@ -50,20 +134,19 @@ class Poisson(NoiseDistribution): """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - def _dmean_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) - - def _d2mean_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) - def _variance(self,gp): """ Mass (or density) function """ return self.gp_link.transf(gp) - def _dvariance_dgp(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.dtransf_df(gp) + def samples(self, gp): + """ + Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. - def _d2variance_dgp2(self,gp): - return self.gp_link.d2transf_df2(gp) + :param gp: latent variable + """ + orig_shape = gp.shape + gp = gp.flatten() + Ysim = np.random.poisson(self.gp_link.transf(gp)) + return Ysim.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/student_t_noise.py b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/student_t_noise.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..daad7186 --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/likelihoods/noise_models/student_t_noise.py @@ -0,0 +1,277 @@ +# Copyright (c) 2012, 2013 Ricardo Andrade +# Licensed under the BSD 3-clause license (see LICENSE.txt) + +import numpy as np +from scipy import stats, special +import scipy as sp +import gp_transformations +from noise_distributions import NoiseDistribution +from scipy import stats, integrate +from scipy.special import gammaln, gamma + +class StudentT(NoiseDistribution): + """ + Student T likelihood + + For nomanclature see Bayesian Data Analysis 2003 p576 + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v+1}{2}\\right)}{\\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v}{2}\\right)\\sqrt{v\\pi\\sigma^{2}}}\\left(1 + \\frac{1}{v}\\left(\\frac{(y_{i} - f_{i})^{2}}{\\sigma^{2}}\\right)\\right)^{\\frac{-v+1}{2}} + + """ + def __init__(self,gp_link=None,analytical_mean=True,analytical_variance=True, deg_free=5, sigma2=2): + self.v = deg_free + self.sigma2 = sigma2 + + self._set_params(np.asarray(sigma2)) + super(StudentT, self).__init__(gp_link,analytical_mean,analytical_variance) + self.log_concave = False + + def _get_params(self): + return np.asarray(self.sigma2) + + def _get_param_names(self): + return ["t_noise_std2"] + + def _set_params(self, x): + self.sigma2 = float(x) + + @property + def variance(self, extra_data=None): + return (self.v / float(self.v - 2)) * self.sigma2 + + def pdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Likelihood function given link(f) + + .. math:: + p(y_{i}|\\lambda(f_{i})) = \\frac{\\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v+1}{2}\\right)}{\\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v}{2}\\right)\\sqrt{v\\pi\\sigma^{2}}}\\left(1 + \\frac{1}{v}\\left(\\frac{(y_{i} - \\lambda(f_{i}))^{2}}{\\sigma^{2}}\\right)\\right)^{\\frac{-v+1}{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + #Careful gamma(big_number) is infinity! + objective = ((np.exp(gammaln((self.v + 1)*0.5) - gammaln(self.v * 0.5)) + / (np.sqrt(self.v * np.pi * self.sigma2))) + * ((1 + (1./float(self.v))*((e**2)/float(self.sigma2)))**(-0.5*(self.v + 1))) + ) + return np.prod(objective) + + def logpdf_link(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Log Likelihood Function given link(f) + + .. math:: + \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i})) = \\ln \\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v+1}{2}\\right) - \\ln \\Gamma\\left(\\frac{v}{2}\\right) - \\ln \\sqrt{v \\pi\\sigma^{2}} - \\frac{v+1}{2}\\ln \\left(1 + \\frac{1}{v}\\left(\\frac{(y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^{2}}{\\sigma^{2}}\\right)\\right) + + :param link_f: latent variables (link(f)) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: likelihood evaluated for this point + :rtype: float + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + objective = (+ gammaln((self.v + 1) * 0.5) + - gammaln(self.v * 0.5) + - 0.5*np.log(self.sigma2 * self.v * np.pi) + - 0.5*(self.v + 1)*np.log(1 + (1/np.float(self.v))*((e**2)/self.sigma2)) + ) + return np.sum(objective) + + def dlogpdf_dlink(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log likelihood function at y, given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{(v+1)(y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))}{(y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))^{2} + \\sigma^{2}v} + + :param link_f: latent variables (f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: gradient of likelihood evaluated at points + :rtype: Nx1 array + + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + grad = ((self.v + 1) * e) / (self.v * self.sigma2 + (e**2)) + return grad + + def d2logpdf_dlink2(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Hessian at y, given link(f), w.r.t link(f) + i.e. second derivative logpdf at y given link(f_i) and link(f_j) w.r.t link(f_i) and link(f_j) + The hessian will be 0 unless i == j + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{(v+1)((y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))^{2} - \\sigma^{2}v)}{((y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))^{2} + \\sigma^{2}v)^{2}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: Diagonal of hessian matrix (second derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f) + :rtype: Nx1 array + + .. Note:: + Will return diagonal of hessian, since every where else it is 0, as the likelihood factorizes over cases + (the distribution for y_i depends only on link(f_i) not on link(f_(j!=i)) + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + hess = ((self.v + 1)*(e**2 - self.v*self.sigma2)) / ((self.sigma2*self.v + e**2)**2) + return hess + + def d3logpdf_dlink3(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Third order derivative log-likelihood function at y given link(f) w.r.t link(f) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{3}\\lambda(f)} = \\frac{-2(v+1)((y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^3 - 3(y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i})) \\sigma^{2} v))}{((y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i})) + \\sigma^{2} v)^3} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: third derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + d3lik_dlink3 = ( -(2*(self.v + 1)*(-e)*(e**2 - 3*self.v*self.sigma2)) / + ((e**2 + self.sigma2*self.v)**3) + ) + return d3lik_dlink3 + + def dlogpdf_link_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the log-likelihood function at y given f, w.r.t variance parameter (t_noise) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d\\sigma^{2}} = \\frac{v((y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^{2} - \\sigma^{2})}{2\\sigma^{2}(\\sigma^{2}v + (y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^{2})} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: float + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + dlogpdf_dvar = self.v*(e**2 - self.sigma2)/(2*self.sigma2*(self.sigma2*self.v + e**2)) + return np.sum(dlogpdf_dvar) + + def dlogpdf_dlink_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Derivative of the dlogpdf_dlink w.r.t variance parameter (t_noise) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d}{d\\sigma^{2}}(\\frac{d \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{df}) = \\frac{-2\\sigma v(v + 1)(y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))}{(y_{i}-\lambda(f_{i}))^2 + \\sigma^2 v)^2} + + :param link_f: latent variables link_f + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: derivative of likelihood evaluated at points f w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + dlogpdf_dlink_dvar = (self.v*(self.v+1)*(-e))/((self.sigma2*self.v + e**2)**2) + return dlogpdf_dlink_dvar + + def d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar(self, link_f, y, extra_data=None): + """ + Gradient of the hessian (d2logpdf_dlink2) w.r.t variance parameter (t_noise) + + .. math:: + \\frac{d}{d\\sigma^{2}}(\\frac{d^{2} \\ln p(y_{i}|\lambda(f_{i}))}{d^{2}f}) = \\frac{v(v+1)(\\sigma^{2}v - 3(y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^{2})}{(\\sigma^{2}v + (y_{i} - \lambda(f_{i}))^{2})^{3}} + + :param link_f: latent variables link(f) + :type link_f: Nx1 array + :param y: data + :type y: Nx1 array + :param extra_data: extra_data which is not used in student t distribution + :returns: derivative of hessian evaluated at points f and f_j w.r.t variance parameter + :rtype: Nx1 array + """ + assert np.atleast_1d(link_f).shape == np.atleast_1d(y).shape + e = y - link_f + d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar = ( (self.v*(self.v+1)*(self.sigma2*self.v - 3*(e**2))) + / ((self.sigma2*self.v + (e**2))**3) + ) + return d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar + + def dlogpdf_link_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + dlogpdf_dvar = self.dlogpdf_link_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return np.asarray([[dlogpdf_dvar]]) + + def dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + dlogpdf_dlink_dvar = self.dlogpdf_dlink_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return dlogpdf_dlink_dvar + + def d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta(self, f, y, extra_data=None): + d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar = self.d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar(f, y, extra_data=extra_data) + return d2logpdf_dlink2_dvar + + def _predictive_variance_analytical(self, mu, sigma, predictive_mean=None): + """ + Compute predictive variance of student_t*normal p(y*|f*)p(f*) + + Need to find what the variance is at the latent points for a student t*normal p(y*|f*)p(f*) + (((g((v+1)/2))/(g(v/2)*s*sqrt(v*pi)))*(1+(1/v)*((y-f)/s)^2)^(-(v+1)/2)) + *((1/(s*sqrt(2*pi)))*exp(-(1/(2*(s^2)))*((y-f)^2))) + """ + + #FIXME: Not correct + #We want the variance around test points y which comes from int p(y*|f*)p(f*) df* + #Var(y*) = Var(E[y*|f*]) + E[Var(y*|f*)] + #Since we are given f* (mu) which is our mean (expected) value of y*|f* then the variance is the variance around this + #Which was also given to us as (var) + #We also need to know the expected variance of y* around samples f*, this is the variance of the student t distribution + #However the variance of the student t distribution is not dependent on f, only on sigma and the degrees of freedom + true_var = 1/(1/sigma**2 + 1/self.variance) + + return true_var + + def _predictive_mean_analytical(self, mu, sigma): + """ + Compute mean of the prediction + """ + #FIXME: Not correct + return mu + + def samples(self, gp): + """ + Returns a set of samples of observations based on a given value of the latent variable. + + :param gp: latent variable + """ + orig_shape = gp.shape + gp = gp.flatten() + #FIXME: Very slow as we are computing a new random variable per input! + #Can't get it to sample all at the same time + #student_t_samples = np.array([stats.t.rvs(self.v, self.gp_link.transf(gpj),scale=np.sqrt(self.sigma2), size=1) for gpj in gp]) + dfs = np.ones_like(gp)*self.v + scales = np.ones_like(gp)*np.sqrt(self.sigma2) + student_t_samples = stats.t.rvs(dfs, loc=self.gp_link.transf(gp), + scale=scales) + return student_t_samples.reshape(orig_shape) diff --git a/GPy/models/fitc_classification.py b/GPy/models/fitc_classification.py index ee92a1b4..0aa21db9 100644 --- a/GPy/models/fitc_classification.py +++ b/GPy/models/fitc_classification.py @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ class FITCClassification(FITC): :param X: input observations :param Y: observed values - :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Binomial with probit link function + :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Bernoulli with probit link function :param kernel: a GPy kernel, defaults to rbf+white :param normalize_X: whether to normalize the input data before computing (predictions will be in original scales) :type normalize_X: False|True @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ class FITCClassification(FITC): kernel = kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + kern.white(X.shape[1],1e-3) if likelihood is None: - noise_model = likelihoods.binomial() + noise_model = likelihoods.bernoulli() likelihood = likelihoods.EP(Y, noise_model) elif Y is not None: if not all(Y.flatten() == likelihood.data.flatten()): diff --git a/GPy/models/gp_classification.py b/GPy/models/gp_classification.py index fce51cfa..7fc61bb7 100644 --- a/GPy/models/gp_classification.py +++ b/GPy/models/gp_classification.py @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ class GPClassification(GP): :param X: input observations :param Y: observed values, can be None if likelihood is not None - :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Binomial with probit link_function + :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Bernoulli with Probit link_function :param kernel: a GPy kernel, defaults to rbf :param normalize_X: whether to normalize the input data before computing (predictions will be in original scales) :type normalize_X: False|True @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ class GPClassification(GP): kernel = kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) if likelihood is None: - noise_model = likelihoods.binomial() + noise_model = likelihoods.bernoulli() likelihood = likelihoods.EP(Y, noise_model) elif Y is not None: if not all(Y.flatten() == likelihood.data.flatten()): diff --git a/GPy/models/gp_regression.py b/GPy/models/gp_regression.py index 1644b661..633fc1c8 100644 --- a/GPy/models/gp_regression.py +++ b/GPy/models/gp_regression.py @@ -25,11 +25,12 @@ class GPRegression(GP): """ - def __init__(self, X, Y, kernel=None, normalize_X=False, normalize_Y=False): + def __init__(self, X, Y, kernel=None, normalize_X=False, normalize_Y=False, likelihood=None): if kernel is None: kernel = kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) - likelihood = likelihoods.Gaussian(Y, normalize=normalize_Y) + if likelihood is None: + likelihood = likelihoods.Gaussian(Y, normalize=normalize_Y) GP.__init__(self, X, likelihood, kernel, normalize_X=normalize_X) self.ensure_default_constraints() diff --git a/GPy/models/gradient_checker.py b/GPy/models/gradient_checker.py index 5afcd7c4..64b8b2fb 100644 --- a/GPy/models/gradient_checker.py +++ b/GPy/models/gradient_checker.py @@ -26,40 +26,40 @@ class GradientChecker(Model): """ :param f: Function to check gradient for :param df: Gradient of function to check - :param x0: + :param x0: Initial guess for inputs x (if it has a shape (a,b) this will be reflected in the parameter names). - Can be a list of arrays, if takes a list of arrays. This list will be passed + Can be a list of arrays, if takes a list of arrays. This list will be passed to f and df in the same order as given here. If only one argument, make sure not to pass a list!!! - + :type x0: [array-like] | array-like | float | int :param names: Names to print, when performing gradcheck. If a list was passed to x0 a list of names with the same length is expected. :param args: Arguments passed as f(x, *args, **kwargs) and df(x, *args, **kwargs) - + Examples: --------- from GPy.models import GradientChecker N, M, Q = 10, 5, 3 - + Sinusoid: - + X = numpy.random.rand(N, Q) grad = GradientChecker(numpy.sin,numpy.cos,X,'x') grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) - + Using GPy: - + X, Z = numpy.random.randn(N,Q), numpy.random.randn(M,Q) kern = GPy.kern.linear(Q, ARD=True) + GPy.kern.rbf(Q, ARD=True) - grad = GradientChecker(kern.K, + grad = GradientChecker(kern.K, lambda x: 2*kern.dK_dX(numpy.ones((1,1)), x), x0 = X.copy(), - names='X') + names='X') grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) grad.randomize() - grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) """ Model.__init__(self) if isinstance(x0, (list, tuple)) and names is None: @@ -75,14 +75,14 @@ class GradientChecker(Model): self.names = names self.shapes = [get_shape(x0)] for name, xi in zip(self.names, at_least_one_element(x0)): - self.__setattr__(name, xi) + self.__setattr__(name, numpy.float_(xi)) # self._param_names = [] # for name, shape in zip(self.names, self.shapes): # self._param_names.extend(map(lambda nameshape: ('_'.join(nameshape)).strip('_'), itertools.izip(itertools.repeat(name), itertools.imap(lambda t: '_'.join(map(str, t)), itertools.product(*map(lambda xi: range(xi), shape)))))) self.args = args self.kwargs = kwargs - self.f = f - self.df = df + self._f = f + self._df = df def _get_x(self): if len(self.names) > 1: @@ -90,10 +90,10 @@ class GradientChecker(Model): return [self.__getattribute__(self.names[0])] + list(self.args) def log_likelihood(self): - return float(numpy.sum(self.f(*self._get_x(), **self.kwargs))) + return float(numpy.sum(self._f(*self._get_x(), **self.kwargs))) def _log_likelihood_gradients(self): - return numpy.atleast_1d(self.df(*self._get_x(), **self.kwargs)).flatten() + return numpy.atleast_1d(self._df(*self._get_x(), **self.kwargs)).flatten() def _get_params(self): diff --git a/GPy/models/sparse_gp_classification.py b/GPy/models/sparse_gp_classification.py index 50c2f935..9274aacc 100644 --- a/GPy/models/sparse_gp_classification.py +++ b/GPy/models/sparse_gp_classification.py @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ class SparseGPClassification(SparseGP): :param X: input observations :param Y: observed values - :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Binomial with probit link_function + :param likelihood: a GPy likelihood, defaults to Bernoulli with probit link_function :param kernel: a GPy kernel, defaults to rbf+white :param normalize_X: whether to normalize the input data before computing (predictions will be in original scales) :type normalize_X: False|True @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ class SparseGPClassification(SparseGP): kernel = kern.rbf(X.shape[1])# + kern.white(X.shape[1],1e-3) if likelihood is None: - noise_model = likelihoods.binomial() + noise_model = likelihoods.bernoulli() likelihood = likelihoods.EP(Y, noise_model) elif Y is not None: if not all(Y.flatten() == likelihood.data.flatten()): diff --git a/GPy/testing/examples_tests.py b/GPy/testing/examples_tests.py index 989251a7..a525b1c9 100644 --- a/GPy/testing/examples_tests.py +++ b/GPy/testing/examples_tests.py @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ def model_checkgrads(model): def model_instance(model): #assert isinstance(model, GPy.core.model) - return isinstance(model, GPy.core.model) + return isinstance(model, GPy.core.model.Model) @nottest def test_models(): @@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ def test_models(): print "After" print functions for example in functions: - if example[0] in ['oil', 'silhouette', 'GPLVM_oil_100']: + if example[0] in ['oil', 'silhouette', 'GPLVM_oil_100', 'brendan_faces']: print "SKIPPING" continue diff --git a/GPy/testing/gp_transformation_tests.py b/GPy/testing/gp_transformation_tests.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..42c0414b --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/testing/gp_transformation_tests.py @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +from nose.tools import with_setup +from GPy.models import GradientChecker +from GPy.likelihoods.noise_models import gp_transformations +import inspect +import unittest +import numpy as np + +class TestTransformations(object): + """ + Generic transformations checker + """ + def setUp(self): + N = 30 + self.fs = [np.random.rand(N, 1), float(np.random.rand(1))] + + + def tearDown(self): + self.fs = None + + def test_transformations(self): + self.setUp() + transformations = [gp_transformations.Identity(), + gp_transformations.Log(), + gp_transformations.Probit(), + gp_transformations.Log_ex_1(), + gp_transformations.Reciprocal(), + ] + + for transformation in transformations: + for f in self.fs: + yield self.t_dtransf_df, transformation, f + yield self.t_d2transf_df2, transformation, f + yield self.t_d3transf_df3, transformation, f + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dtransf_df(self, transformation, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + grad = GradientChecker(transformation.transf, transformation.dtransf_df, f, 'f') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d2transf_df2(self, transformation, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + grad = GradientChecker(transformation.dtransf_df, transformation.d2transf_df2, f, 'f') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d3transf_df3(self, transformation, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + grad = GradientChecker(transformation.d2transf_df2, transformation.d3transf_df3, f, 'f') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + assert grad.checkgrad() + +#if __name__ == "__main__": + #print "Running unit tests" + #unittest.main() diff --git a/GPy/testing/likelihoods_tests.py b/GPy/testing/likelihoods_tests.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8d1466fb --- /dev/null +++ b/GPy/testing/likelihoods_tests.py @@ -0,0 +1,577 @@ +import numpy as np +import unittest +import GPy +from GPy.models import GradientChecker +import functools +import inspect +from GPy.likelihoods.noise_models import gp_transformations +from functools import partial + +def dparam_partial(inst_func, *args): + """ + If we have a instance method that needs to be called but that doesn't + take the parameter we wish to change to checkgrad, then this function + will change the variable using set params. + + inst_func: should be a instance function of an object that we would like + to change + param: the param that will be given to set_params + args: anything else that needs to be given to the function (for example + the f or Y that are being used in the function whilst we tweak the + param + """ + def param_func(param, inst_func, args): + inst_func.im_self._set_params(param) + return inst_func(*args) + return functools.partial(param_func, inst_func=inst_func, args=args) + +def dparam_checkgrad(func, dfunc, params, args, constraints=None, randomize=False, verbose=False): + """ + checkgrad expects a f: R^N -> R^1 and df: R^N -> R^N + However if we are holding other parameters fixed and moving something else + We need to check the gradient of each of the fixed parameters + (f and y for example) seperately, whilst moving another parameter. + Otherwise f: gives back R^N and + df: gives back R^NxM where M is + The number of parameters and N is the number of data + Need to take a slice out from f and a slice out of df + """ + #print "\n{} likelihood: {} vs {}".format(func.im_self.__class__.__name__, + #func.__name__, dfunc.__name__) + partial_f = dparam_partial(func, *args) + partial_df = dparam_partial(dfunc, *args) + gradchecking = True + for param in params: + fnum = np.atleast_1d(partial_f(param)).shape[0] + dfnum = np.atleast_1d(partial_df(param)).shape[0] + for fixed_val in range(dfnum): + #dlik and dlik_dvar gives back 1 value for each + f_ind = min(fnum, fixed_val+1) - 1 + print "fnum: {} dfnum: {} f_ind: {} fixed_val: {}".format(fnum, dfnum, f_ind, fixed_val) + #Make grad checker with this param moving, note that set_params is NOT being called + #The parameter is being set directly with __setattr__ + grad = GradientChecker(lambda x: np.atleast_1d(partial_f(x))[f_ind], + lambda x : np.atleast_1d(partial_df(x))[fixed_val], + param, 'p') + #This is not general for more than one param... + if constraints is not None: + for constraint in constraints: + constraint('p', grad) + if randomize: + grad.randomize() + if verbose: + print grad + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + if not grad.checkgrad(): + gradchecking = False + + return gradchecking + + +from nose.tools import with_setup +class TestNoiseModels(object): + """ + Generic model checker + """ + def setUp(self): + self.N = 5 + self.D = 3 + self.X = np.random.rand(self.N, self.D)*10 + + self.real_std = 0.1 + noise = np.random.randn(*self.X[:, 0].shape)*self.real_std + self.Y = (np.sin(self.X[:, 0]*2*np.pi) + noise)[:, None] + self.f = np.random.rand(self.N, 1) + self.binary_Y = np.asarray(np.random.rand(self.N) > 0.5, dtype=np.int)[:, None] + self.positive_Y = np.exp(self.Y.copy()) + tmp = np.round(self.X[:, 0]*3-3)[:, None] + np.random.randint(0,3, self.X.shape[0])[:, None] + self.integer_Y = np.where(tmp > 0, tmp, 0) + + self.var = 0.2 + + self.var = np.random.rand(1) + + #Make a bigger step as lower bound can be quite curved + self.step = 1e-3 + + def tearDown(self): + self.Y = None + self.f = None + self.X = None + + def test_noise_models(self): + self.setUp() + + #################################################### + # Constraint wrappers so we can just list them off # + #################################################### + def constrain_negative(regex, model): + model.constrain_negative(regex) + + def constrain_positive(regex, model): + model.constrain_positive(regex) + + def constrain_bounded(regex, model, lower, upper): + """ + Used like: partial(constrain_bounded, lower=0, upper=1) + """ + model.constrain_bounded(regex, lower, upper) + + """ + Dictionary where we nest models we would like to check + Name: { + "model": model_instance, + "grad_params": { + "names": [names_of_params_we_want, to_grad_check], + "vals": [values_of_params, to_start_at], + "constrain": [constraint_wrappers, listed_here] + }, + "laplace": boolean_of_whether_model_should_work_for_laplace, + "ep": boolean_of_whether_model_should_work_for_laplace, + "link_f_constraints": [constraint_wrappers, listed_here] + } + """ + noise_models = {"Student_t_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.student_t(deg_free=5, sigma2=self.var), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["t_noise"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Student_t_1_var": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.student_t(deg_free=5, sigma2=self.var), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["t_noise"], + "vals": [1], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Student_t_small_var": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.student_t(deg_free=5, sigma2=self.var), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["t_noise"], + "vals": [0.01], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Student_t_approx_gauss": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.student_t(deg_free=1000, sigma2=self.var), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["t_noise"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Student_t_log": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.student_t(gp_link=gp_transformations.Log(), deg_free=5, sigma2=self.var), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["t_noise"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Gaussian_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["noise_model_variance"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True, + "ep": True + }, + "Gaussian_log": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(gp_link=gp_transformations.Log(), variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["noise_model_variance"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Gaussian_probit": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(gp_link=gp_transformations.Probit(), variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["noise_model_variance"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Gaussian_log_ex": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(gp_link=gp_transformations.Log_ex_1(), variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N), + "grad_params": { + "names": ["noise_model_variance"], + "vals": [self.var], + "constraints": [constrain_positive] + }, + "laplace": True + }, + "Bernoulli_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.bernoulli(), + "link_f_constraints": [partial(constrain_bounded, lower=0, upper=1)], + "laplace": True, + "Y": self.binary_Y, + "ep": True + }, + "Exponential_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.exponential(), + "link_f_constraints": [constrain_positive], + "Y": self.positive_Y, + "laplace": True, + }, + "Poisson_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.poisson(), + "link_f_constraints": [constrain_positive], + "Y": self.integer_Y, + "laplace": True, + "ep": False #Should work though... + }, + "Gamma_default": { + "model": GPy.likelihoods.gamma(), + "link_f_constraints": [constrain_positive], + "Y": self.positive_Y, + "laplace": True + } + } + + for name, attributes in noise_models.iteritems(): + model = attributes["model"] + if "grad_params" in attributes: + params = attributes["grad_params"] + param_vals = params["vals"] + param_names= params["names"] + param_constraints = params["constraints"] + else: + params = [] + param_vals = [] + param_names = [] + constrain_positive = [] + if "link_f_constraints" in attributes: + link_f_constraints = attributes["link_f_constraints"] + else: + link_f_constraints = [] + if "Y" in attributes: + Y = attributes["Y"].copy() + else: + Y = self.Y.copy() + if "f" in attributes: + f = attributes["f"].copy() + else: + f = self.f.copy() + if "laplace" in attributes: + laplace = attributes["laplace"] + else: + laplace = False + if "ep" in attributes: + ep = attributes["ep"] + else: + ep = False + + if len(param_vals) > 1: + raise NotImplementedError("Cannot support multiple params in likelihood yet!") + + #Required by all + #Normal derivatives + yield self.t_logpdf, model, Y, f + yield self.t_dlogpdf_df, model, Y, f + yield self.t_d2logpdf_df2, model, Y, f + #Link derivatives + yield self.t_dlogpdf_dlink, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints + yield self.t_d2logpdf_dlink2, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints + if laplace: + #Laplace only derivatives + yield self.t_d3logpdf_df3, model, Y, f + yield self.t_d3logpdf_dlink3, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints + #Params + yield self.t_dlogpdf_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + yield self.t_dlogpdf_df_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + yield self.t_d2logpdf2_df2_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + #Link params + yield self.t_dlogpdf_link_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + yield self.t_dlogpdf_dlink_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + yield self.t_d2logpdf2_dlink2_dparams, model, Y, f, param_vals, param_constraints + + #laplace likelihood gradcheck + yield self.t_laplace_fit_rbf_white, model, self.X, Y, f, self.step, param_vals, param_names, param_constraints + if ep: + #ep likelihood gradcheck + yield self.t_ep_fit_rbf_white, model, self.X, Y, f, self.step, param_vals, param_names, param_constraints + + + self.tearDown() + + ############# + # dpdf_df's # + ############# + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_logpdf(self, model, Y, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + np.testing.assert_almost_equal( + np.log(model.pdf(f.copy(), Y.copy())), + model.logpdf(f.copy(), Y.copy())) + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_df(self, model, Y, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + self.description = "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + logpdf = functools.partial(model.logpdf, y=Y) + dlogpdf_df = functools.partial(model.dlogpdf_df, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(logpdf, dlogpdf_df, f.copy(), 'g') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + print model + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d2logpdf_df2(self, model, Y, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + dlogpdf_df = functools.partial(model.dlogpdf_df, y=Y) + d2logpdf_df2 = functools.partial(model.d2logpdf_df2, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(dlogpdf_df, d2logpdf_df2, f.copy(), 'g') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + print model + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d3logpdf_df3(self, model, Y, f): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + d2logpdf_df2 = functools.partial(model.d2logpdf_df2, y=Y) + d3logpdf_df3 = functools.partial(model.d3logpdf_df3, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(d2logpdf_df2, d3logpdf_df3, f.copy(), 'g') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + print model + assert grad.checkgrad() + + ############## + # df_dparams # + ############## + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.logpdf, model.dlogpdf_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_df_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.dlogpdf_df, model.dlogpdf_df_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d2logpdf2_df2_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.d2logpdf_df2, model.d2logpdf_df2_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + ################ + # dpdf_dlink's # + ################ + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_dlink(self, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + logpdf = functools.partial(model.logpdf_link, y=Y) + dlogpdf_dlink = functools.partial(model.dlogpdf_dlink, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(logpdf, dlogpdf_dlink, f.copy(), 'g') + + #Apply constraints to link_f values + for constraint in link_f_constraints: + constraint('g', grad) + + grad.randomize() + print grad + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d2logpdf_dlink2(self, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + dlogpdf_dlink = functools.partial(model.dlogpdf_dlink, y=Y) + d2logpdf_dlink2 = functools.partial(model.d2logpdf_dlink2, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(dlogpdf_dlink, d2logpdf_dlink2, f.copy(), 'g') + + #Apply constraints to link_f values + for constraint in link_f_constraints: + constraint('g', grad) + + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + print grad + assert grad.checkgrad() + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d3logpdf_dlink3(self, model, Y, f, link_f_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + d2logpdf_dlink2 = functools.partial(model.d2logpdf_dlink2, y=Y) + d3logpdf_dlink3 = functools.partial(model.d3logpdf_dlink3, y=Y) + grad = GradientChecker(d2logpdf_dlink2, d3logpdf_dlink3, f.copy(), 'g') + + #Apply constraints to link_f values + for constraint in link_f_constraints: + constraint('g', grad) + + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + print grad + assert grad.checkgrad() + + ################# + # dlink_dparams # + ################# + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_link_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.logpdf_link, model.dlogpdf_link_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_dlogpdf_dlink_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.dlogpdf_dlink, model.dlogpdf_dlink_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_d2logpdf2_dlink2_dparams(self, model, Y, f, params, param_constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + print model + assert ( + dparam_checkgrad(model.d2logpdf_dlink2, model.d2logpdf_dlink2_dtheta, + params, args=(f, Y), constraints=param_constraints, + randomize=False, verbose=True) + ) + + ################ + # laplace test # + ################ + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_laplace_fit_rbf_white(self, model, X, Y, f, step, param_vals, param_names, constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + #Normalize + Y = Y/Y.max() + white_var = 0.001 + kernel = GPy.kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.white(X.shape[1]) + laplace_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.Laplace(Y.copy(), model) + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X.copy(), Y.copy(), kernel, likelihood=laplace_likelihood) + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_fixed('white', white_var) + + for param_num in range(len(param_names)): + name = param_names[param_num] + m[name] = param_vals[param_num] + constraints[param_num](name, m) + + m.randomize() + m.checkgrad(verbose=1, step=step) + print m + assert m.checkgrad(step=step) + + ########### + # EP test # + ########### + @with_setup(setUp, tearDown) + def t_ep_fit_rbf_white(self, model, X, Y, f, step, param_vals, param_names, constraints): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + #Normalize + Y = Y/Y.max() + white_var = 0.001 + kernel = GPy.kern.rbf(X.shape[1]) + GPy.kern.white(X.shape[1]) + ep_likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.EP(Y.copy(), model) + m = GPy.models.GPRegression(X.copy(), Y.copy(), kernel, likelihood=ep_likelihood) + m.ensure_default_constraints() + m.constrain_fixed('white', white_var) + + for param_num in range(len(param_names)): + name = param_names[param_num] + m[name] = param_vals[param_num] + constraints[param_num](name, m) + + m.randomize() + m.checkgrad(verbose=1, step=step) + print m + assert m.checkgrad(step=step) + + +class LaplaceTests(unittest.TestCase): + """ + Specific likelihood tests, not general enough for the above tests + """ + + def setUp(self): + self.N = 5 + self.D = 3 + self.X = np.random.rand(self.N, self.D)*10 + + self.real_std = 0.1 + noise = np.random.randn(*self.X[:, 0].shape)*self.real_std + self.Y = (np.sin(self.X[:, 0]*2*np.pi) + noise)[:, None] + self.f = np.random.rand(self.N, 1) + + self.var = 0.2 + + self.var = np.random.rand(1) + self.stu_t = GPy.likelihoods.student_t(deg_free=5, sigma2=self.var) + self.gauss = GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(gp_transformations.Log(), variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N) + + #Make a bigger step as lower bound can be quite curved + self.step = 1e-6 + + def tearDown(self): + self.stu_t = None + self.gauss = None + self.Y = None + self.f = None + self.X = None + + def test_gaussian_d2logpdf_df2_2(self): + print "\n{}".format(inspect.stack()[0][3]) + self.Y = None + self.gauss = None + + self.N = 2 + self.D = 1 + self.X = np.linspace(0, self.D, self.N)[:, None] + self.real_std = 0.2 + noise = np.random.randn(*self.X.shape)*self.real_std + self.Y = np.sin(self.X*2*np.pi) + noise + self.f = np.random.rand(self.N, 1) + self.gauss = GPy.likelihoods.gaussian(variance=self.var, D=self.D, N=self.N) + + dlogpdf_df = functools.partial(self.gauss.dlogpdf_df, y=self.Y) + d2logpdf_df2 = functools.partial(self.gauss.d2logpdf_df2, y=self.Y) + grad = GradientChecker(dlogpdf_df, d2logpdf_df2, self.f.copy(), 'g') + grad.randomize() + grad.checkgrad(verbose=1) + self.assertTrue(grad.checkgrad()) + +if __name__ == "__main__": + print "Running unit tests" + unittest.main() diff --git a/GPy/testing/unit_tests.py b/GPy/testing/unit_tests.py index e4d9e063..818cb56e 100644 --- a/GPy/testing/unit_tests.py +++ b/GPy/testing/unit_tests.py @@ -209,7 +209,7 @@ class GradientTests(unittest.TestCase): Z = np.linspace(0, 15, 4)[:, None] kernel = GPy.kern.rbf(1) m = GPy.models.SparseGPClassification(X,Y,kernel=kernel,Z=Z) - #distribution = GPy.likelihoods.likelihood_functions.Binomial() + #distribution = GPy.likelihoods.likelihood_functions.Bernoulli() #likelihood = GPy.likelihoods.EP(Y, distribution) #m = GPy.core.SparseGP(X, likelihood, kernel, Z) #m.ensure_default_constraints() diff --git a/GPy/util/datasets.py b/GPy/util/datasets.py index f5947179..565f8e76 100644 --- a/GPy/util/datasets.py +++ b/GPy/util/datasets.py @@ -17,13 +17,13 @@ except ImportError: import sys, urllib -def reporthook(a,b,c): +def reporthook(a,b,c): # ',' at the end of the line is important! #print "% 3.1f%% of %d bytes\r" % (min(100, float(a * b) / c * 100), c), #you can also use sys.stdout.write sys.stdout.write("\r% 3.1f%% of %d bytes" % (min(100, float(a * b) / c * 100), c)) sys.stdout.flush() - + # Global variables data_path = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), 'datasets') default_seed = 10000 @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ data_resources = {'ankur_pose_data' : {'urls' : [neil_url + 'ankur_pose_data/'], 'license' : None, 'citation' : """3D Human Pose from Silhouettes by Relevance Vector Regression (In CVPR'04). A. Agarwal and B. Triggs.""", 'details' : """Artificially generated data of silhouettes given poses. Note that the data does not display a left/right ambiguity because across the entire data set one of the arms sticks out more the the other, disambiguating the pose as to which way the individual is facing."""}, - + 'boston_housing' : {'urls' : ['http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/machine-learning-databases/housing/'], 'files' : [['Index', 'housing.data', 'housing.names']], 'citation' : """Harrison, D. and Rubinfeld, D.L. 'Hedonic prices and the demand for clean air', J. Environ. Economics & Management, vol.5, 81-102, 1978.""", @@ -164,14 +164,14 @@ def prompt_user(prompt): print(prompt) choice = raw_input().lower() # would like to test for exception here, but not sure if we can do that without importing IPython - except: + except: print('Stdin is not implemented.') print('You need to set') print('overide_manual_authorize=True') print('to proceed with the download. Please set that variable and continue.') raise - + if choice in yes: return True elif choice in no: @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ def data_available(dataset_name=None): if not os.path.exists(os.path.join(data_path, dataset_name, file)): return False return True - + def download_url(url, store_directory, save_name = None, messages = True, suffix=''): """Download a file from a url and save it to disk.""" i = url.rfind('/') @@ -249,18 +249,18 @@ def download_data(dataset_name=None): for file in files: download_url(os.path.join(url,file), dataset_name, dataset_name) return True - + def data_details_return(data, data_set): """Update the data component of the data dictionary with details drawn from the data_resources.""" data.update(data_resources[data_set]) return data - + def cmu_urls_files(subj_motions, messages = True): ''' - Find which resources are missing on the local disk for the requested CMU motion capture motions. + Find which resources are missing on the local disk for the requested CMU motion capture motions. ''' - + subjects_num = subj_motions[0] motions_num = subj_motions[1] @@ -280,15 +280,15 @@ def cmu_urls_files(subj_motions, messages = True): motions[i].append(curMot) all_skels = [] - + assert len(subjects) == len(motions) - + all_motions = [] - + for i in range(len(subjects)): skel_dir = os.path.join(data_path, 'cmu_mocap') cur_skel_file = os.path.join(skel_dir, subjects[i] + '.asf') - + url_required = False file_download = [] if not os.path.exists(cur_skel_file): @@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ if gpxpy_available: points = [point for track in gpx.tracks for segment in track.segments for point in segment.points] data = [[(point.time-datetime.datetime(2013,8,21)).total_seconds(), point.latitude, point.longitude, point.elevation] for point in points] X.append(np.asarray(data)[::sample_every, :]) - gpx_file.close() + gpx_file.close() return data_details_return({'X' : X, 'info' : 'Data is an array containing time in seconds, latitude, longitude and elevation in that order.'}, data_set) del gpxpy_available @@ -408,7 +408,7 @@ def oil(data_set='three_phase_oil_flow'): return data_details_return({'X': X, 'Y': Y, 'Xtest': Xtest, 'Ytest': Ytest, 'Xtest' : Xtest, 'Xvalid': Xvalid, 'Yvalid': Yvalid}, data_set) #else: # throw an error - + def oil_100(seed=default_seed, data_set = 'three_phase_oil_flow'): np.random.seed(seed=seed) data = oil() @@ -622,7 +622,7 @@ def xw_pen(data_set='xw_pen'): X = np.arange(485)[:, None] return data_details_return({'Y': Y, 'X': X, 'info': "Tilt data from a personalized digital assistant pen. Plot in original paper showed regression between time steps 175 and 275."}, data_set) - + def download_rogers_girolami_data(): if not data_available('rogers_girolami_data'): download_data(data_set) diff --git a/GPy/util/linalg.py b/GPy/util/linalg.py index 213cd047..f68e1a0b 100644 --- a/GPy/util/linalg.py +++ b/GPy/util/linalg.py @@ -61,6 +61,14 @@ def dpotri(A, lower=0): """ return lapack.dpotri(A, lower=lower) +def pddet(A): + """ + Determinant of a positive definite matrix, only symmetric matricies though + """ + L = jitchol(A) + logdetA = 2*sum(np.log(np.diag(L))) + return logdetA + def trace_dot(a, b): """ Efficiently compute the trace of the matrix product of a and b diff --git a/GPy/util/misc.py b/GPy/util/misc.py index d3f23b75..1cb4c182 100644 --- a/GPy/util/misc.py +++ b/GPy/util/misc.py @@ -5,6 +5,33 @@ import numpy as np from scipy import weave from config import * +def chain_1(df_dg, dg_dx): + """ + Generic chaining function for first derivative + + .. math:: + \\frac{d(f . g)}{dx} = \\frac{df}{dg} \\frac{dg}{dx} + """ + return df_dg * dg_dx + +def chain_2(d2f_dg2, dg_dx, df_dg, d2g_dx2): + """ + Generic chaining function for second derivative + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{2}(f . g)}{dx^{2}} = \\frac{d^{2}f}{dg^{2}}(\\frac{dg}{dx})^{2} + \\frac{df}{dg}\\frac{d^{2}g}{dx^{2}} + """ + return d2f_dg2*(dg_dx**2) + df_dg*d2g_dx2 + +def chain_3(d3f_dg3, dg_dx, d2f_dg2, d2g_dx2, df_dg, d3g_dx3): + """ + Generic chaining function for third derivative + + .. math:: + \\frac{d^{3}(f . g)}{dx^{3}} = \\frac{d^{3}f}{dg^{3}}(\\frac{dg}{dx})^{3} + 3\\frac{d^{2}f}{dg^{2}}\\frac{dg}{dx}\\frac{d^{2}g}{dx^{2}} + \\frac{df}{dg}\\frac{d^{3}g}{dx^{3}} + """ + return d3f_dg3*(dg_dx**3) + 3*d2f_dg2*dg_dx*d2g_dx2 + df_dg*d3g_dx3 + def opt_wrapper(m, **kwargs): """ This function just wraps the optimization procedure of a GPy diff --git a/GPy/util/univariate_Gaussian.py b/GPy/util/univariate_Gaussian.py index 5a5880d5..702ab25c 100644 --- a/GPy/util/univariate_Gaussian.py +++ b/GPy/util/univariate_Gaussian.py @@ -13,24 +13,32 @@ def std_norm_cdf(x): Cumulative standard Gaussian distribution Based on Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I. (1970) """ + #Generalize for many x + x = np.asarray(x).copy() + cdf_x = np.zeros_like(x) + N = x.size support_code = "#include " code = """ - double sign = 1.0; - if (x < 0.0){ - sign = -1.0; - x = -x; + double sign, t, erf; + for (int i=0; i