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massive comment quoting literature
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@ -53,6 +53,76 @@ class Model(ParamzModel, Priorizable):
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def CCD(self):
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"""
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Code is based on implementation within GPStuff, INLA and the original Sanchez and Sanchez paper (2005)
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CCD = Central Composite Design, pick hyperparameters around the MAP estimate to allow us to estimate the
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integral over them.
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Quoting https://arxiv.org/pdf/1206.5754.pdf (section 5.4) which
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describes GPStuff, which this work is based upon.
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"Rue et al. (2009) suggest a central composite design (CCD) for choosing
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the representative points from the posterior of the parameters with
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the aim of finding points that allow one to estimate the curvature
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of the posterior distribution around the mode. The design used here
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copies GPstuff's fractional factorial design (Sanchez and Sanchez, 2005)
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augmented with a center point and a group of star points."
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"The design points are all on the surface of a d-dimensional sphere
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and the star points consist of 2d points along each axis. The
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integration is then a finite sum with special weights (Vanhatalo et al.,
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2010)."
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Quoting that article:
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"The integration weights can then be determined from the statistics of a
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standard Gaussian variable,
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E[z^T z] = d
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E[z] = 0
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E[1] = 1
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where d is the dimensionality of \theta.
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sphere has radius \sqrt{d}f_0.
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The integration weights are equal for the points on the sphere.
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This results in integration weights,
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\Delta = [ (n_p-1) e^(-df_0^2/2) (f_0^2-1) ]^{-1}
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n_p = number of points on sphere.
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"CCD integration speeds up the computations considerably compared to the
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grid search or Monte Carlo integration since the number of the design
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points grows very moderately."
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"Since CCD is based on the assumption that the posterior of the parameter
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is (close to) Gaussian, the densities at the points on the circumference
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should be monitored in order to detect serious discrepancies from this
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assumption. These densities are identical if the posterior is Gaussian
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and we have located the mode correctly, and thereby great variability on
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their values indicates that CCD has failed."
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TODO: From the description of GPStuff: "The posterior of the
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parameters may be far from a Gaussian distribution but for a suitable
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transformation, which is made automatically in the toolbox..." -- is
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this the same transformation we perform below?
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TODO: Implement the above weights in the summation.
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References:
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Sanchez, Susan M., and Paul J. Sanchez. "Very large fractional factorial and central composite designs." ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS) 15.4 (2005): 362-377.
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http://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handle/10945/35346/SanchezSanchezACM_TOMACS_05.pdf?sequence=1
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Rue, Håvard, Sara Martino, and Nicolas Chopin. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations." Journal of the royal statistical society: Series b (statistical methodology) 71.2 (2009): 319-392.
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http://www.jstor.org/stable/40247579
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Vanhatalo, Jarno, Ville Pietiläinen, and Aki Vehtari. "Approximate inference for disease mapping with sparse Gaussian processes." Statistics in medicine 29.15 (2010): 1580-1607.
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http://lib.tkk.fi/Diss/2010/isbn9789526033815/article4.pdf
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"""
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modal_params = self.optimizer_array[:].copy()
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num_free_params = modal_params.shape[0]
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